Can Anwar win a second term as PM?
The Pakatan Harapan strategy may yet pave the way for Sabah and Sarawak to be kingmakers again.
The probability that Anwar Ibrahim will end up as just a one-term prime minister is rising.
After all, he did not get the mandate to be PM on the strength of Pakatan Harapan (PH) alone in the 15th general election (GE15).
In fact, not a single party or coalition won enough seats to get anywhere near a simple majority in the Dewan Rakyat.
In the 2022 general election, PH won 82 seats and Perikatan Nasional (PN) went home with 74.
Initially Barisan Nasional (BN), which bagged 30 seats, was prepared to throw its lot behind PN together with Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS).
But finally BN and GPS, whose combined take in the Dewan Rakyat made them the kingmaker, picked Anwar as Malaysia’s 10th prime minister.
It is highly likely that the next general election (GE16) will yield similar results but with peninsula-based parties winning a different number of seats than they did in GE15.
We can expect an erosion of support for Umno, the lynchpin of BN, but how far that will go remains to be seen.
Umno retains some support in the southern states of the peninsula but overall, PN is likely to end up with more seats than the PH-BN partnership.
This makes parties in Sabah and Sarawak the kingmakers, so it will be a mistake for any peninsula-based party to take them for granted.
For Anwar to return as PM, he will need PH to hold on to as many seats as possible and retain the support he has received from Sabah and Sarawak.
Given that the DAP is most likely to hold on to its 40 seats means the focus will be on PKR and Amanah to keep as many as possible of theirs.
The best scenario for Anwar is not just for PH parties to retain their seats but also to keep Umno as a partner even if it loses some seats, as well as maintain support from Sabah and Sarawak.
That will get him a second term in office.
But for PN, there are high hopes that they will wrest many seats from Umno and PKR as well as chip away some support from Amanah, which now has eight seats.
Hypothetically, if PN can take 20 seats from the PH-BN partnership, it will give them 94 seats in the Dewan.
Once again, Sabah and Sarawak will be the kingmakers and if PN can entice them to switch sides, it will get to nominate its own man for the post of prime minister.
It is obvious that both sides of the political divide in the peninsula believe their can win the mandate in GE16. However, some uncertainties remain.
The big question is will Umno implode? Its leadership issue is a big concern and the Najib Razak factor has caused some instability within the party.
Secondly, PH may try to regain non-Malay support by changing its style of government though this is unlikely to happen based on the attitude of the current leadership.
Thirdly, some black swan event, such as PAS joining the unity government or the DAP joining PN, may take place. This will change everything.
Finally, Sabah or Sarawak may insist that one of their own becomes prime minister in the next government.
In a scenario where there is more than one claim to the prime ministership, Anwar’s self-positioning as an establishment man will work in his favour.
Discretion is allowed in the selection of prime minister in accordance with Article 40(2)(a) of the Federal Constitution and this was most definitely utilised in the appointment of the last three prime ministers.
As a consequence, any prime ministerial nominee from any other party will have to take this incumbency factor into account.
Economic management may turn out to be the unity government’s Achilles heel.
Anwar’s government is actually undertaking some hard and unpopular economic reforms with subsidy rationalisation and moving towards EPF from pension schemes within the public sector.
Hard economic reforms often hurt and will not win votes as the outcome of the Sungai Bakap by-election showed.
The government has three more years to show that its economic plan will benefit the people.
Time will tell if this will become a major factor in determining the results of the next general election.
Perhaps Anwar’s best strategy is to focus on issues that people vote on.
PN sees the advantage of being a largely silent opposition.
By keeping relatively quiet, it is just letting the unity government lose votes rather than work hard to win them.
From this perspective the PN strategists are out-foxing PH.
Originally published in FMT 20th July 2024
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With the way MacMullah of MacDani is steering the gomen and driving the country with his two left foot, it is unlikely MacMullah Anwar would get anywhere than further incompetence, ineptitude, and towards disaster. With a lot of narcissistic big talk, of course.
The sheer waste of time and energy with his attempt to make himself an international figure over Palestine, has, as expected, collapsed with China cutting the floor from right under him.
China has just a couple days ago done what MacMullah couldn't do with his own "unity" gomen of disparate and opposing interests, China has unified the various political groups of Palestine and got them to come together in Beijing and form themselves into a unified force. As he always overrates himself but can't produce any outcome which is not daft and hilarious, MacMullah has, in spite of all his great effort at making himself relevant, lost terribly to China.
China has done a great job which the squawking and squabbling Arab and Muslim world couldn't do for themselves, got the basically treacherous and useless lot at least make a start, get together like mature adults. The last meet up by the Muslim Arabs themselves saw the Qataris and Emeratis having a shouting match against the Palestinian for the world to see.
The rest of the time the Muslim best friends of each other can only put their energy into stabbing each other in the back as favours to the Israelis.
The kind of pork sausage MacMullah Anwar is, he's being busy and energetically defending BlackRock which ultimately has questionable links to Israel. MacMullah of MacDani is a seriously confused macaivillain who plays both sides and all sides who always gets himself butt shafted in the end.
Not too few of our half-baked Muslims are just as confused lot or even religious fakes. While making pious noise for Palestinians, they also have boundless love for ISIS and Al Qaeda which serve the US and Israel - and killing Palestinians! With their support of the boycott against the Israelis our great Brotherhood for the Palestinians couldn't last, soon as they got half the chance, the best friends of the Palestinians were back to pigging boycotted food businesses in support of the enemies of the Palestinians, Alhamdullilah!
The Palestinians and the Arab world are thanking the Chinese profusely for bringing them together, they have sidelined MacMullah, they might not have even noticed Anwar all along! G*d's gift to Malaysia might be poison to the Arab and Muslim world. There could jolly well still be suspicions MacMullah is still a stooge for Western interests which are weirdly still too nice to MacMullah over Palestine, China, BRICS...
For all his Islamic credentials, the Arab and Muslim world still favour communist and atheist China than MacMullah of MacDani, how bizarre! And how embarrassingly terrible and disastrous for Anwar! Best just to stay home and be useless than go internationally and be useless. MacMullah should have had a tiny bit of wit, known right at the start China would upstage him, Alhamdullilah!
Anwar fail to get malay and non malay support. He need to put this right. He lied all his life but all these were exposed when he had to deal with the truth when he cheated his way to be PM.. He took the stage and have no idea what to do..as PM. Very embarrassing.