GE15 Preview: Perlis

In GE14 Perlis went against the trend

Perlis is the most northern state on the peninsula and will be having a state election, and also take part in the federal election on November 19.

Perlis, the smallest state within the federation borders Songkhla and Satun Provinces in Thailand, and Kedah. Perlis has a population of approximately 280,000, where 86% are Malay, 9% Chinese, 2% Indian, and 3% of Thai and other origin.

Perlis is a very conservative state and held up against the Pakatan Harapan surge in the 2018 election, where the Barisan Nasional held onto the state government. Perlis is also takes a Salafi leaning tradition towards Islam throughout most of the state, differing it from the rest of the country. The politics between PAS and UMNO has some of this element within it. PAS and UMNO kampongs throughout the state are clearly distinguishable.

Federal Seats

Perlis has three federal seats, Padang Besar, Kangar, and Arau. These seats will be bitterly fought. There won’t be too much interference from out of state politicians. Most of the campaigning will be a local affair. What will make Perlis more interesting is the campaigning and performance of two former UMNO MPS, Zahidi Zainul Abidin, who is running as an independent in his old seat of Padang Besar, and Shahidan Kassim, who is running under the PN banner in his old seat of Arau.

Padang Besar was formed in 1995, when the population of Perlis grew to the point of justifying a third seat. The seat since its inception has always been in the hands of UMNO. Back in 2013, it was a very safe seat where Zahidi won a 6,500 vote majority, but this was eroded down to 1,500 votes in 2018. This coming election, Padang Besar will be a five-sided contest. A new face, UMNO Womens’ Puteri leader Zahida Zarik Khan is very enthusiastic to win the seat. She should have strong support from women within UMNO on the hustings. However, she will have to contest Zahidi, who sees the seat as his, and will run as an independent. No one is sure of how much local support he is bringing with him to the campaign.

Zahida Zarik Khan - New blood in parliament

Zahidi Zainul Abidin - Believes the Rakyat of Padang Besar want him

The other three candidates in the five cornered fight are Mohd Saat @ Yahaya from Pakatan, Rushdan Rusmi of PN, and Ko Chu Liang standing for Warisan. This could split the vote meaning that the eventual winner, may only need to muster around 35% of the vote to come out in front.

In Kangar, if the Barisan Nasional vote returns to 2013 levels, then UMNO’s Fathul Bari could wrest the seat from incumbent Noor Amin Ahmad of Pakatan. This will not be easy to do, as Noor Amin has a good reputation with voters in Kangar.

Arau will be the Battle Royale of Perlis. Shahidan abandoned UMNO, after being dropped as candidate and went to Terengganu to plead for endorsement from PAS leader Abdul Hadi Awang. It will certaintly be a hard fought and dirty campaign against BN’s Rozabil Abd Rahman. Shahidan will be expected to invest as much as is needed to win. However, its difficult to see local PAS branch organization helping him, while there are also large sections within the UMNO Perlis party organization who would like to see him go as well.

It's probable Shahidan may just scape through.

Its not impossible for UMNO to make a clean sweep of the three federal seats in Perlis. However, its more likely that UMNO will win one, Pakatan one, and PN one.

State Election

There are 15 seats up for grabs in the state assembly. Before the dissolution of parliament, Barisan Nasional held 10 seats (UMNO 9, MCA 1), PAS 2 seats, and Pakatan 3 seats.

In 2018 the aggregate state vote was as follows:

Barisan Nasional  39.02%

Pakatan Harapan 34.14%

PAS (now PN) 25.93%

The voter turnout was 81.9%

BN was able to hold onto power convincingly back in 2018. This was primarily from three cornered fights between Pakatan and PAS which cost dearly. The situation is the same this time around. PAS has strong rural support, but just not enough to win more seats, than the two they already have.

BN holds Guar Sanji and Simpang Empat by narrow margins over PAS. PAS won Sanglang from BN with a narrow margin. PH nearly won Sena, and took the seat of Indera Kayangan with a good majority, which they should hold onto.

BN should comfortably win the Perlis State Assembly. It may even pick up 3 or 4 seats this time round.

The seats in play are:

Titi Tinggi (probably BN hold)

Sena (A danger to PH losing to BN)

Puah (Probably BN will hold)

Simpang Empath (Probably BN hold)

Sanglang (Probably PAS loss to BN)

This would be Azlan Man’s third term as Menteri Besar. He is on good terms with the Raja, and should be shown in as the next MB.

Perlis caretaker MB Azlan Man

BN, PH, and PN are running in all state seats.

Subscribe Below: