GE15 will be a battle between two visions of Malaysia

FMT column 12th September 2022

The coming general election will be something of a watershed, a struggle between two different visions of what Malaysia should be.

The aggregate voting figures cast in the peninsula during the 2018 general election, and the subsequent Melaka and Johor state elections clearly showed there is a deep division within the nation as to whether there should be a Malay-centric dominated or a diverse and inclusive government.

Although Malaya, and later Malaysia were founded upon the premise that power would be shared between the major ethnic groups, this has been skewed towards the domination of administrative government by Malay-centric groups.

Following the fall of the Pakatan Harapan Government in February 2020 to Malay-centric party configurations, hopes of reform towards a Malaysian-Malaysia outlook from government administration was totally dashed.

Much of the electorate became angry, and apathetic towards politics. Mahathir Mohamed was blamed for what many saw was a treacherous act in resigning as prime minister, allowing the government to fall. The plotters behind the Sheraton Putsch were seen as traitors to the reform movement. Muhyiddin Yassin was seen as a ‘backdoor’ prime minister, lacking all legitimacy.

This pushed the opposition into the wilderness.

Has the imprisonment of Najib Razak created a cathartic moment in Malaysian politics?

The big question now is did the incarceration of Najib Razak in Kajang Prison open up the electoral fight for the coming general election? There is something about Najib’s physical imprisonment that seems to have changed political perceptions. The vista of some UMNO leaders calling on Prime Minister Ismail Sabri to do something about Najib’s conviction, exposed selfish behaviour on the part of the ‘court cluster’ leadership, which has lost some authority, which has swung over to Ismail Sabri.

If this is correct, the electoral dynamics of GE15 have all changed.

The opposition are now back with some contention. After looking like losers for almost two and a half years, the Najib jailing has symbolically exposed the nature of deep-set corruption within the UMNO ‘court cluster.’ This message will not go away as at least four more UMNO politicians have court cases ahead, with Najib himself facing more.

The ball is now in the Pakatan Harapan court on how to play this card to their best advantage over the coming months.

The battle for two visions of Malaysia

Behind the fight between the Malay-centric parties comprised of UMNO, PAS, and Bersatu, and Pakatan with a long string of other new parties contesting opposition space, is a deeper battle. The battle for the future trajectory of Malaysia.

The Malay-centric vision of Malaysia is keeping the status quo. A federal government dominated by Malay based parties. Economic policies based on the philosophy of Ketuanan Melayu, as manifested in the New Economic Policy (NEP). Heavy economic intervention through GLCs. Islam integrated within all facets of government. The eradication of corruption very low on the government priority list. This all comes with the self-serving narratives that we have all been used to hearing from Malay-centric government.

The espoused vision of the opposition is very different. The vision is based on turning the NEP into a needs-based policy, rather than race-based policy. More transparency and accountability, as a means to lesson corruption. There would be a move to distance religion from government more, accepting the principle that Islam is the religion of Malaysia. The economy would be made more competitive with as yet unspecified reforms.

The counter vision of Malaysia would rest upon the principle that all Malaysians would be treated equally.

The electoral realities

The major electoral reality due to demographics is that somewhere in between is what is possible. Don’t expect guarantees to the position of Malays or the place of Islam to be challenged. However, the rest will all be up to electoral pandering during the campaign.

Its possible that both sides of the political spectrum will fight within this middle policy ground.

Ismail Sabri is much more able than most give him credit for. The accidental prime minister, if rebuked by the ‘court cluster’ which still controls the UMNO organization, would be able to assemble a coalition comprised of his cabinet, the MCA, and MIC. He would be able to rely upon Bersatu and PAS after the election for numbers, should he be estranged from UMNO. This way he would mainly free of the ‘corruption liabilities’ UMNO is currently going through now.

This is why Ismail Sabri hasn’t been sacked from his UMNO positions.

Ismail Sabri needs to decapitate the ‘court cluster’ within UMNO, to remain in UMNO. Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s power and influence should wane as his court case progresses. A conviction before the election, would empower Ismail Sabri enough to stage a coup de grace within the party, most probably allowing him to take charge.

In this case Ismail Sabri could campaign without the ‘corruption liability.’

The opposition cannot afford to underestimate Ismail Sabri. Under the Barisan Nasional banner he can campaign in a more moderate manner, with MCA and MIC as electoral partners.

Ismail Sabri’s biggest electoral asset would be the potential three and even four cornered electoral fights, which will dramatically weaken the opposition vote in the First-Past-The-Post electoral system. However, if both Bersatu and PAS don’t cooperate with UMNO, there is the possibility of a very messy election with as many as five or even six candidate fights, diluting both sides of the vote.

In such a scenario with multiple candidates standing in each seat, it will be the calibre of individual candidates, how well they are known locally, and their ability to bring out voters on election day that will make the difference.

This may create the situation where no one block could govern without the cooperation of the other, something like we are seeing currently.

The opposition’s best chance to win is to ensure individual parties and independents don’t compete against each other. Ideally, the boldest move would be for the main opposition parties to amalgamate into one big multi-racial party to take the Malay-centric group head on. There are many egos involved here. However, if the opposition believes in the principle of serving the people, and offering a real alternative to UMNO, this is a no-brainer.

GE15 could be a watershed election, where the nation’s voters are making a much bigger choice than just the candidate they vote for. They will be voting for the future trajectory of the nation.

Originally published in FMT 12th September 2022