How the Thai-Cambodia conflict may create an opportunity to change the balance of Thai politics
Winning with the narrative of nationalism
The resurgence of the Thai-Cambodian border conflict may create an opportunity for the conservative political parties to rout-out the so-called liberal non-establishment political parties. This dissolution of the 500-member lower house on Friday 12 within a ‘fervor of nationalism’ around the nation will greatly favor the conservative parties. This election is coming at a time when according to NIDA polling, where Pheu Thai and the People’s Party currently have a low base compared to earlier in 2025.
Back in the 2024 general election Pita Limjaroenrat’s Move Forward won 171 seats, while Pheu Thai won 141 seats. Based on current polling and the advent of the nationalist fervor in Thailand, People’s Party and Pheu Thai will certainly struggle to win anywhere near the same number in 2025. Current prime minister Anutin Charnwirakul’s Bhumjaithai Party will likely take up some of the slack, together with a resurgence of the conservative Democrat Party, after losing almost have its seats in 2023.
This will change the nature of the 2026 lower house which may look much more conservative after the coming general election. With the very disappointing performance of Pheu Thai compared with the reformist years under former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra between 2001-2006, Pheu Thai is set to wane in support, with Thaksin himself still in prison for the duration of the campaign.
The Thatcher effect
With the number of undecided voters hovering around 32.0 percent at the time of the calling the election, mass disillusionment with the current state of politics leaves an opportunity open for a swift in the balance of political support.
The Thatcher effect, where the then British prime minister Margarat Thatcher called a general election when nationalist fervor was high after the Falklands War, could play a major role in the coming Thai election scheduled to take place on February 8. Such an effect will put liberal non-establishment parties into the political wilderness, and place more conservative political parties firmly in control of the lower house.
The People’s Party is still facing a number of issues and challenges, while Pheu Thai support has been eaten away from all sides. Pheu Thai now must rely upon its northern and north-easter base. With the Thai-Cambodian conflict still seen in a positive light by the Thai people, the party has no where to go.
Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party should regain what support it lost after the Hat Yai floods, where focus will be directed externally, rather than on any dissatisfaction with the way it has governed to date. Anutin maybe bolstered by the rapid climb in polling for the Democrats in the south and the return of Abhisit Vejjajiva to politics. Perhaps an unknown will be the new Economic Party which has taken hardline stands on issues, an ultra-nationalist party. Its leader General Rangsi Kitiyansap may play a much larger role in government, in the near future.
These observations are made upon some pre-parliament dissolution data and its still early days in the Thai-Cambodian conflict. Anything can change in an election campaign and 32.0 percent of undecided voters leaves a great scope for error.
However, such a scenario will bring Thai politics back to the future.
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