Is UMNO on the verge of imploding six days before the election?

This is likely to drastically change the game

UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi thought he had the perfect plan to drop four ministers loyal to prime minister Ismail Sabri was fool proof. However, when he dropped Shahidan Kassim, Annuar Musa, Adham Baba, and Halimah Mohamed Sadique, along with MPs Zahidi Zainal Abidin, Ismail Abd Muttalib, and Azhar Ahmad, he didn’t anticipate the fierce retaliation.

Shahidan Kassim immediately joined Perikatan Nasional and will most probably take his Arau seat to PN, while others are running as independents.

Zahid’s move not only angered those who were dropped, but mobilized many disgruntled UMNO members to take a stand and move with those he dropped. This is not just affecting the constituencies concerned, but going statewide as well.

Former Padang Besar MP made a statement today that the BN will fall in Perlis. Not only will they loose two federal seats, but the state government as well. Zahidi, combining with Shahidan Kassim and Azhar Ahmad certainly have the capability to achieve this.

This is not just isolated to Perlis. UMNO members in Maran, Pahang are moving across to support Ismail Ab Muttalib, who is also running for PN. This is splitting the party on the ground.

UMNO secretary general Ahmad Maslan today suspended all party posts of Maran Wanita chief Fatimah Kassim, as well as Arau Wanita UMNO chief Shamsiah Yasin, in a bid to quell the revolt.

UMNO Wanita has traditionally been the section of UMNO that supplies party workers for the election campaign. Ismail Ab Muttalib has a chance of retaining Maran under the PN banner, as the Muhyiddin is finding rekindled popularity in the Malay heartlands.   

In Alor Setar, where the BN has endorsed an MCA candidate Tan Chee Heong, many UMNO members are assisting other candidates. This could threaten BN’s dominance within the seat.

In Bagan Datuk, Zahid’s own seat in Perak there are reports of UMNO members not only standing down for the campaign, but actively trying to sabotage his campaign.

The growing rift within UMNO can be clearly seen in the Sungai Buloh campaign, where Khairy Jamaluddin was dumped in a seat that no one within the UMNO leadership thought he could win. Khairy has become a defacto opposition leader, heavily criticizing UMNO’s present leadership and talking about the urgent need to reform UMNO. Although Khairy has to make up 26,000 votes, based on the 2018 seat results, there is significant momentum swinging behind him. However, maybe not enough for him to get up.

Khairy now describes himself as an “UMNO reformist”. If he does get back into parliament on November 19, this could spring into a formal faction within UMNO.

Many are speculating Zahid is planning to ditch Ismail Sabri Yaakob as prime minister after the election and attempt to take on this role himself. Whether this is true or not, the idea is destabilizing the party.

UMNO is under immense pressure for campaign funds. Jailed UMNO defacto leader Najib Razak has withheld campaign funds. He funded all the byelections after his defeat in 2018 and played a major role in the Melaka and Johor state elections.

UMNO has lost the competitive advantage it had of being the party with the most funds. It appears Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional has taken that mantle.

Pundits are saying Muhyiddin is no making big inroads upon UMNO strongholds within the Malay heartlands. Poor funding and major infighting six days out from election day is a catastrophe for UMNO.

This gives PN the opportunity to become the legitimate Malay voice from the heartlands, at UMNO’s expense.

It is strategically very important for BN to be the largest grouping in parliament after November 19 to form a working government. If UMNO continues to implode over the next few days, their potential position as the largest grouping in the new parliament could be in jeopardy.

That would mean that the Agong would have to invite either Muhyiddin Yassin or Anwar Ibrahim to form a government.

A lot has happened in Malaysian politics over the last 24 hours.

With all the multi-cornered contests on Saturday, who knows what the result will be.

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