Let the games begin

Federal Parliament Dissolved Amid Floods

Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced on national television the dissolution of parliament in preparation for a federal election. No election date has been announced. The Election Commission will select a suitable date within the next few days.

The prime minister has requested all state governments, except Sabah, Sarawak, Melaka, and Johor also dissolve their state assemblies in conjunction with the federal parliament dissolution. It is not known whether Pakatan Harapan and PAS state governments will comply.

It is believed the Yang Di-Petuan Agong agreed to dissolve federal parliament yesterday in a meeting with the prime minister at the Istana Negara.

The parliament has been dissolved even though parts of the country are under flood, and floods areas may spread over the next 60 days, as the monsoons intensify.

The national budget tabled last Friday will now be in abeyance until a new parliament sits after the general election.

Political parties still not completely prepared

Although there has long been speculation an election will soon be called, most political parties have not yet completed their candidate lists. Some parties are finding it difficult to field candidates, as candidates must fund much of their campaign by themselves. However, within UMNO is has been reported infighting among division heads for candidacy, as one term as an MP provides a lifelong pension. However, there are also rumours there will be some surprises in the UMNO candidate list, with some new faces presented. DAP is also rumoured to be presenting more Malay candidates this time round.

Some ministers within the current cabinet like Rembau MP Khairi Jamaluddin may contest in a different seat, while Gombak MP Azmin Ali may stand under another party.

Party alignments are also making party candidate selections more difficult. Syed Saddiq’s youth party MUDA may be forced to go alone, while Gerakan’s alignment with PN has not yet been equated into seats.

It is very likely there will be two and even three-cornered fights between UMNO, PN and Mahathir’s Pejuang parties. Within the opposition groupings, there is a large grouping of vying parties against Pakatan, including MUDA, Gerakan, Gerak Independent, and others.

With fragmented voting, it will be possible that some candidates could win seats with only 30 percent of the aggregate vote.

The youth vote is another unknown. However, based upon Johor state election voting patterns, the 2.6 million new voters will vote along similar patterns to other demographics. The major issue here maybe the apathy of youth voters, who may be hesitant to turn out on voting day.

The election, called in the current circumstances appears to be opportunistic for UMNO. This may put many off voting, leading to a low voter turnout in GE15. Social media is full of angry comments that the election has been called amid flooding.

A low voter turnout in GE15 would not be surprising.

This would most likely benefit UMNO. Thus, Pakatan must develop the right narratives to motive people to come out and vote. This is what the logistical side of their campaign must focus upon. The more voters Pakatan gets out, the closer will be the results. Otherwise, most likely the election will be an UMNO onslaught.

Zahid appears to be in control

The calling of an early election makes it appear that UMNO President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is firmly in control. Holding the election after his court acquittal will allow Zahid to strongly influence who will be the next attorney general with the power to drop criminal charges. A strong UMNO showing would increase the possibility that Najib Razak, who is serving a 12 year jail term in Kajang Prison will be given a pardon during the term of the next parliament.

The real political manoeuvrings will occur after the election

It’s unlikely any single political party will hold a simple majority within the Dewan Rakyat after the election. So fierce negotiation will go on after the election to form a new coalition government. The prime determinant of negotiating strength will be the seats one by the respective parties. UMNO will be in prime position and may negotiate with either PN or the DAP to form a government, with GPS in Sarawak and UMNO Sabah.

This election could see the demise of Bersatu, the decimation of Pejuang, finally ending Mahathir’s long political career, and lacklustre performance by MUDA. PKR may possibly lose a third of its seats, while the DAP may find some electoral pushback, although it will lose very few seats. In contrast, GPS in Sarawak may be strengthened, and Warisan sent back to Sabah.

Perhaps the legacy of GE15 will be a changing of the guard with many long standing political leaders. DAP stalwart Lim Kit Siang has announced his retirement, while many others will also go by choice or voter choice.

There will be many surprises coming in this election.

Subscribe Below: