Muhyiddin’s resignation deepens Malaysia’s political crisis

The number counting begins in earnest, king calls for an era of “new politics”

Muhyiddin Yassin’s resignation as Malaysian prime minister has plunged the country into a deeper political crisis. When Muhyiddin resigned his commission, his 73-member ministry was automatically dissolved. Day to day government is now run directly by the civil service.

Malaysia now has a one-man caretaker government with Covid-10 cases still around the 20k mark daily, even though more than 98 percent of the population has received at least one of the two necessary jabs. The nation faces a public health crisis, with hospital resources, particularly in the Klang Valley stretched to the limit. Long term restrictions have crippled hundreds of thousands of businesses, leaving many families destitute, at the mercy of neighbours’ assistance. Even though the official unemployment rate is 4.8 percent, unemployment rates are much higher in many vulnerable sections of the workforce. GDP has plunged 5.6 percent, a figure not seen since the Asian financial crisis back in 1997.

While Malaysia is in crisis, the country’s politicians have been fighting for power. By all reports, a situation appears where no one block is able to muster a convincing majority. The long under-siege Perikatan Nasional (PN) government finally collapsed after 17 months, after taking power from the elected Pakatan Harapan (PH) government through the Sheraton putsch, in February last year.

Its not clear who will succeed Muhyiddin as prime minister, there is no clear frontrunner. There is speculation about a number of possibilities who could replace Muhyiddin, and how party blocks may support the new prime minister in office.

The Yang di-Pertuan Agong, or king, Al-Sultan Abdullah Sultan Shah, accepted Muhyiddin’s resignation, after reportedly wanting it, over the last week, or so. The king, through the palace initiated a meeting of major political party leaders, who he has unprecedently meet together. It was reported that the king insisted all parties agree to leave behind the politics of old, and work together to address the Covid-19 and economic crises.

In addition, the Dewan Rakyat, or lower house speaker, Azhar Azizan Harun, on direction from the palace, requested all MPs to submit their choice of prime minister in writing to the palace within 24 hours. However, there has been criticism of this by some MPs, as a secret ballot lacks transparency.

This appears the king is not strictly acting according to convention, or the constitution, in this crisis. He is playing a wider role. Any long-time observer of Malaysian politics has seen that the sultans and king have often played a very serious consultation role, over and above their strict constitutional roles. In some states, Sultans often have pre-executive council meetings with their excos, or state ministers, and give their opinions. Thus, Westminster politics Malaysian style empowers the king and sultans with persuasive influence, not strictly written down in the constitution.

There are a number of scenarios about what could happen next.

The king will seek to appoint a prime minister that he is satisfied can command a majority in the Dewan Rakyat. Currently with two seats vacant in the 222-member house, a simple majority would be 111. There are currently three fluid possibilities.

The first is a replacement of Muhyiddin with UMNO member and recently appointed deputy prime minister under Muhyiddin, Ismail Sabri Yaacob. This is probably unlikely due to the bitter rivalry with UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, which looks beyond reconciliation. Without something unforeseen, like Pakatan Harapan falling behind Sabri, which would mean working with Bersatu once again, is a very remote possibility.

The second option would be an UMNO led coalition. With Zahid facing graft charges in court, he is out of the running as a potential prime minister. Therefore, a compromise nomination for prime minister would be necessary. The strongest candidate would be Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, a respected UMNO elder who would take the position until the next election. Razaleigh is a person who may be able to mend bridges within UMNO, and for that reason would be a good choice. He is also popular in the Malay heartlands and can talk to some of the more progressive people. Another choice would be Hishammuddin Hussein. He may garner supporter from the Zahid faction, and hold most of Bersatu together.

The third option is an Anwar led Pakatan Harapan government. Anwar currently has 105 MPs. He would have to find support from the UMNO MPs led by Zahid. However, Zahid at the UMNO party congress said that he would never work with UMNO or Anwar, even though it has been reported that negotiations have been going on. Other options would be Sarawak’s GPS or a portion of Bersatu going behind Anwar. However, GPS said they would never cooperate with PKR, and are bitter rivals with DAP at state level. This would be hard to think of, unless PH took up a compromise candidate like Shafie Apdal from Sabah, and got full Warisan support. Warisan are already hinting about supporting Anwar.

In the likely event, no one block can convince the king of having an overall majority, then a minority government, with non-aligned support, or the opposition agreeing not to make a vote of no confidence in the government may be able to govern until the next election. This would open the door for Muhyiddin to continue until the next election as a minority government.

A minority government is probably the most likely possibility, as calling a general election would be very risky due to the current pandemic. The Electoral Commission has informed the palace that 484 state constituencies out of 613 are Covid-19 red areas. It is generally believed the king is not in favour of an election.

However, it was suggested by a former Electoral Commission chief, Abdul Aziz Mohd. Yusof, that campaigning for a general election could be conducted online. A minority government could continue until conditions are better for a general election, near the end of this year, or early next year.

Another option, which the king and fellow rulers, have been reported to support is a national unity government in some form or other. The king could use his position as a mediator to encourage or broker a proposal to him from the major political parties to form such as government. The onus would be on the parties to select a prime ministerial candidate and build a multi-party cabinet behind him. Here, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah has been mention by many pundits as a good candidate. The major stumbling block to seeing this happen is the year or more of bitter political rivalries, and seeing all parties rise above this. PAS is on public record that it would never work with DAP, it would be difficult to see PKR work with Bersatu, because of the Azmin Ali group. However, the king’s persuasive powers can’t be underestimated, if he can layout a strong case.

Malaysia is now entering unchartered political, and even constitutional territory.

Voters within the Malay heartland may favour an UMNO led government, while the majority of urban voters want to see an Anwar led Pakatan Harapan government, believing this is the only just and fair outcome. However, once an election is concluded and MPs sit in the Dewan Rakyat, it is the MPs who choose any government, not popular sentiment from the people. The king is looking at which MP can, according to his belief, muster a majority of member support within the parliament.

The mandate for the next prime minister will have to be focused upon managing the pandemic, where case numbers are expected to start falling very soon, due to vaccination progress, and rescuing the economy, which is quickly running into deep recession. Therefore, the issue is not who will form the next government, rather how the new government will manage a dual-crises.

We will know over the next few days whether Malaysia’s political leaders have heeded the king’s request.

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