PKR electoral analysis shows the true state of popularity the party must contend with in GE16
A PKR internal strategic electoral analysis for the coming 16th general election indicates the dismal state of the party electorally. A document titled “GE16 Strategic Analysis: Summary by Tier” highlighted by Malaysiakini indicates that the party has a massive job ahead of them in the coming general election.
The GE16 analysis highlights than the party’s popularity position in key seats has eroded to the point many will be difficult to hold onto. The analysis focused on 66 parliamentary seats that assumably PKR is planning to contest in the upcoming election.
Back in 2018, PKR won 47 parliamentary seats. In the last general election in 2022, PKR won 31 seats out of the 81 contested.
The 66 seats PKR are considering this coming GE were categorized into four tiers so strengths and risks could be reviewed.
There are 7 seats placed in Tier 1 considered strong/safe, 13 seats in Tier 2A considered almost strong, 17 seats in Tier 2B considered marginal/competitive, and 29 seats as Tier 3 considered difficult/recovery.
Consequently 46 seats out of the 66 seats PKR plans to contest are considered high risk.
Potential consequences for PKR
The data shows that only 7 PKR parliamentary seats in Tier 1 can be considered safe. Four of these are held by former minister of economy Rafizi Ramli and 3 of his allies, Wong Cheng in Subang, Lee Chean Chung in Petaling Jaya and Rodziah Ismail in Ampang.
In Tier 2A which are considered strong are Lembah Pantai where communications minister Fahmi Fadzil is the member, Nibong Tebal held by minister of communications Fadhlina Sidek, Johor Bahru with the minister of economy Akmal Nasrullah as member, and Sungai Petani with the minister of youth and sports as Taufiq Johari as member.
Many of PKR’s current seats are categorized as Tier 2B which are considered marginal and competitive. This includes prime minister Anwar Ibrahim’s seat Tambun, which he wone with a 3,735 majority from Bersatu deputy president Ahmad Faizul Azumu.
Also, in Tier 2B is Tanjung Malim, a mixed seat held by Chang Lih Kang the minister for science, technology and innovation.
In the Tier 3 zone designated difficult, the seats of Gombak held by Amirudin Shari and Sungei Buloh held by R Ramanan sit.
Hints about PKR electoral strategy
The analysis indicates that PKR will not waste resources in Tier 1 and push them into needed seats in Tiers 2B and 3. The report also indicates that it may only seriously target winnable seats in Tier 3.
This may include Permatang Puah in Penang, where Anwar Ibrahim is tipped to run in, Kuantan which was lost by PKR secretary-general Fuziah Salleh and Kulim-Bandar Baharu which was lost by home minister Saifuddin Nasution.
There are rumors that Tengku Zafrul may contest in Pandan, which Rafizi Ramli currently holds. To date, a probable seat for Nurul Izzah Anwar has not been named. Possibilities may be taking over her mother’s seat of Bandar Tun Razak, if her mother Wan Azizah decides to retire from parliament.
Given the analysis its likely PKR could possibly win around 29 seats according to the plan. Many would dispute that figure based on PKR’s current popularity. The party wants to combat the popularity issue with a positive publicity campaign. In addition, some of the Tier 1 seats might be in danger if new candidates are placed in these seats to compete against the “Rafizi” faction.
What is important here is that PKR have a very realistic picture of where they are for the coming general election.
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