Probable conviction of Rosmah may make GE15 very competitive

UMNO rapidly losing lustre while Pakatan Harapan back in the race

Self-proclaimed former FLOM or first lady of Malaysia according to blogger RPK will have a guilty verdict pronounced on her RM1.25 billion Sarawak rural schools’ solar energy case this coming 1st September.

The verdict was scheduled to be delivered on 7th September, but due to ‘case management’ issues the verdict has been rescheduled for 1st September. This is the second time a highly sensitive political judgement has leaked, (or fabricated) after Najib Razak’s decision was purportedly leaked earlier this week.

Rosmah will not be imprisoned on 1st September, most probably being allowed to go through the full appeals process under bail.

This is the second high profile conviction out of investigations began by the Pakatan Harapan Government, led by Mahathir Mohamed. With the Ahmad Zahid Hamidi case well progressed, a third guilty judgement is likely over the next couple of months.

These convictions are probably the most important legacy of the Pakatan Government, that will leave a deep mark upon the country. It may also turn out that these convictions will now allow Pakatan to be competitive once again this coming general election due to a sudden change in perception upon UMNO, since these convictions.

The actual pronouncement of guilt of Rosmah, following on from her husband’s loss of his appeal and incarceration in Kajang Prison has brought home to Malaysians a deep sense that something is drastically wrong inside UMNO.

UMNO’s image has quickly deteriorated over the conflicting stories that Prime Minister Ismail Sabri was given an ultimation to overturn Najib’s conviction and immediately call an election, or be sacked of all his party positions.

The announcement that the budget is being moved forward three weeks, indicates that there could be a General before the monsoon season sets in later in the year.

Based on the Johor State election that took place back in March this year, UMNO is looking to sweep the coming general election with a landslide. Consequently, many within the party see an early election is needed to take advantage of UMNO’s current popularity. However Prime Minister Ismail Sabri has the sole power to call for an election, while Zahid has the power to select UMNO electoral candidates. The current Ismail Sabri Government made up of rogue UMNO members, Bersatu, and PAS, face the possibility of being overrun by UMNO. Ismail Sabri has been playing the waiting game, letting the court system rid him of his competitors within UMNO.

However, the physical incarceration of Najib last Tuesday after losing his High Court appeal, and the leaked news of Rosmah’s upcoming guilty verdict, is rapidly changing electoral perception of UMNO.

This was the newly elected Deputy President of PKR Rafizi Ramli’s strategy. To ride up in electoral appeal as Malaysians become disenchanted with UMNO’s corruption. At first Rafizi’s approach appeared a very negative one, but the shock of the convictions is quickly changing the potential voter dynamics of the coming general election, proving Rafizi’s strategy as a sound one.

There is still a large number of undecided voters, many of who may not even turn out to vote. This apathy, potentially plays into the hands of UMNO. However, continual revelations over UMNO’s corruption could bring a strong voter polarization back to Pakatan.

In addition to the emerging LCS scandal, Malaysia has been plagued with countless cases of corruption, which have been bleeding dry the nations coffers.

The ‘court cluster’ convictions are a game changer. Convictions and imprisonments will shock the nation’s voters and possibly change their electoral preferences. All the political parties participating in GE15 know this. Party morale within Pakatan is quickly rising again, as there are many who are starting to believe that Pakatan is in with a chance again. Opposition forces see opportunities reopening.

Ismail Sabri’s non-interference with the judicial system, has given a clear message to Malaysia’s corporate, legal, and professional class that enough is enough with the corrupt leadership within UMNO. The consequences of this, i.e., the upholding of Najib’s conviction and his jailing, and likely guilty verdict for Rosmah has put fear into the supporters of the Najib-Zahid faction.

The attempts to portray Najib and Rosmah both received unfair justice by the early release of court decisions and Najib’s courtroom antics with legal teams will not work in swaying public opinion. Zahid without Najib is very quickly losing solid support within UMNO. The low turnout of UMNO division leaders to meetings called by Zahid is indicatory of his quickly waning support.

UMNO is hurting itself badly with its public bickering. There is an immense internal power struggle going on, which will potentially split the party. In the worse scenario, the actual survival of UMNO is under threat unless the leadership gets its act together.

Ismail Sabri may be forced to seek alternative alliances for him and his cabinet, if the Zahid faction keeps pushing him. Dismissing Ismail Sabri could be the final rupture. Ismail Sabri behind the scenes has sculptured an alternative to UMNO to run in the coming general election. Muhyiddin and even Mahathir are not too far away from him. There could be a new Malay-centric force, or even a new reinvented UMNO coming soon.

With public opinion in shock, its now getting very difficult politically, without polarizing the nation for any immediate pardon for Najib.

A lot is going to happen in Malaysian politics over the next couple of months.

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