Seats that may change the trajectory of Malaysian politics (Part 2)

Every seat has its own stories

As we get to 2 days before the election, there are still many undecided voters. The voter turnout will be crucial for the result.

Bera is a constituency in Pahang that caretaker prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob has held since 2004. With 58,711 registered voters. In 2018, Ismail Sabri won the seat with a majority of 2,311. This election he faces Abas Awang from Pakatan Harapan and Asmawi Harun from Perikatan Nasional.

Being the incumbent prime minister and popular within the constituency, Ismail Sabri should hold onto the seat. Ismail Sabri is travelling around without the prominence of his bodyguards and has rarely left the seat to focus upon campaigning. This may indicate he may be concerned about holding it with any swing against UMNO on November 19. With any swing against UMNO, the split vote between PKR and Bersatu may be enough to ensure a narrow victory.

However, the Chinese vote in the town of Triang will be very crucial in the final result. The state seat covering Triang within Bera, was won by the DAP with a majority 6.454 majority. DAP will run a very strong campaign for Leong Yu Man in the state seat, which could influence the result in Bera.

Langkawi has traditionally been a very safe seat for UMNO, until Mahathir Mohamed snatched it away in the 2018 general election. Mahathir won a 8,893 vote majority. At 97, Mahathir is the oldest candidate in the general election.

Mahathir is very popular on the Island of Langkawi, adopting it as a second home during his first term as prime minister. He developed the island, which received the gratitude of locals. However, Mahathir’s role in politics since he resigned as prime minister has soured many Malaysians against him. Its not known if this is shared by the locals in Langkawi.

Many believe although Mahathir’s time has passed, he should be able to hold onto his seat. He has six candidates running against him. The most competitive should be Armishah Siradj of UMNO, although his vote will be split by Mohd Suhaimi Abdullah of PN, Zabidi Yahya of PH, and independent Abd Kadir Sainudin.

Jerlun is being defended by Mahathir’s son Mukhriz Mahathir, trying to win a third term. Mukhriz has been Mentri Besar of Kedah, and is well known in the area. However, he has not been without criticism for being an absentee Mentri Besar, during his tenure.

Although, he has held the seat for two terms, there are many local problems with floods and infrastructure within the seat. The region has grown from paddy communities to semi-urban over the last decade. Government development has not kept pace.

Mukhriz won the seat in 2018 with 5,866 majority. He also won the state seat and became Mentri Besar, but lost the position after the Sheraton Putsch. Mukhriz’s Parti Pejuang Tanah Air hasn’t gained the traction they hoped for during the campaign.

Mukhriz faces very stiff competition for the seat this time around with Abd Ghani Ahmad of PN, Othman Aziz, who previously held the seat after the 2013 election, and Mohamed Fadzil Mohd Ali from PH.

Abd Ghani Ahmad of PAS who was defeated by Mukhriz in 2018 is running a hard fought campaign to win the seat. Some locals feel is Mukhriz wins he will not be able to do much for the constituency. Othman Aziz would also like to win it back, making the campaign very intense.

This seat is going to be extremely difficult for Mukhriz to hold. Even if he wins it, he would be almost alone in parliament with no forward career path in front of him, other than being a back bencher. If he loses, effectively, the political career of Mukhriz would be effectively over.

Kuala Selangor along the coast of Selangor state will be a contest between former health minister in the Pakatan Harapan government Dzulkefly Ahmad and caretaker finance minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz, who wants to move from the Senate into the Dewan Rakyat.

This was a seat after the Johor state election that Tengku Zafrul thought he could win. Although Dzulkefly of Amanah won with an 8,498 majority in 2018, UMNO with momentum could come close. However, the latest polling suggests otherwise.

Confidence of UMNO is waning and the reverse is occurring on the Pakatan side. There are two other candidates, Mohd Shaid Rosli of Pejuang, and Mohd Noor Mohd Sahar of PAS. Predicting the result in Kuala Selangor is difficult, as some of the latest polling shows a surge in support for PN, as well. Therefore there could be a close 3 way result here. The seat has changed hands over the past three elections, Pakatan winning it in 2008 and 2018, and BN in 2013.

Balik Pulau on the southern part of Penang Island, has changed hands over the last three elections, and could be considered a bellwether seat. PKR’s Muhammad Bakhtiar Wan Chik will be defending the seat against six other candidates. These include BN’s Shah Headan Ayoob Hussain Shah, independent Johnny Ch’ng Wan Chik, PN’s Muhammad Harris Idaham Abdul Rashid, independent Sabaruddin Ahmad, and Pejuang’s Fazil Mohammad.

The BN thought it would be possible to retake the seat. Now it appears PKR may be able to hold the seat.

Ampang in Selangor is held by Zuraida Kamaruddin, who defected from PKR with Azmin Ali and served as a minister since 2018. She is now a candidate under Parti Bangsa Malaysia, which had controversy over who was the president. Zuraida in 2018 won a 41,956 vote majority.

However, her role in the Sheraton Putsch and betrayal of the Pakatan Harapan government could be a major factor in the election. In addition, a well known local candidate who is well established in Selangor state politics, Rodziah Ismail is contesting under the Pakatan Harapan banner in a bid to retake the seat for PH.

This is a bitter campaign, and the result here will be very interesting. Other candidates are Ivone Low Yi Wen for the BN, independent M Raven, Nurul Ashikin Mabahwi for Pejuang, Lai Wai Chong for Warisan, Sasha Lyna Abdul Latif for PN, and independents Muhammad Syafiq Izwan Mohd Yunos, and Tan Hua Meng. The vote split among many candidates will make counting long on Saturday night.

Pagoh in Johor has been Muhyiddin Yassin’s stronghold since 1978, with a break between 1986-95. Muhyiddin was prime minister after the Sheraton Putsch, in February 2020, until Ismail Sabri took over office in 2021.

Muhyiddin’s support base has halved over the last decade. He faces former Muar MP Razali Ibrahim of BN, and Pakatan’s Iskandar Shah Abd Rahman, in a three way contest.

If PN finishes with the most seats in the Dewan Rakyat on November 19, Muhyiddin would possibility become prime minister. However, he must win his seat first. Whether Muhyiddin holds the seat will largely depend upon which way the non-Malay vote goes, which makes up around 31% of voters.

Ayer Hitam is adjoining Pagoh, where BN’s Wee Ka Siong held the seat in 2018 with a 303 vote majority. The DAP’s Sheikh Umar Bagharib who is well known in the area, and aims to capture the Malay vote. This should give Wee a run for his money. This will be a very hard seat to call.

Tanjong Karang in Selangor is a BN stronghold, where the incumbent Nor Omar was not endorsed. He has been replaced with the division UMNO Wanita chief Habibah Mohd. Yusof. Tanjong Karang UMNO member Mohd Rosli Mastol is running as an independent to avenge the dis-endorsement of Nor Omar. This has split UMNO in the constituency.

Also contesting is Zulkafperi Hanapi of Bersatu, MUDA’s Siti Rahway Baharin, representing Pakatan, and Azlan Sani Zawawi of Pejuang.

In 2018, Nor Omar won over Zulkafperi Hanapi, with a margin of 1972 votes. The result this time round will be very difficult to predict.

Subscribe Below: