The assassination of Al-Zawahiri may not have been a good idea

Al-Zawahiri’s Killing May Send Al-Qaeda in Ominous New Directions

The July 31 elimination of Al-Qaeda’s Ayman Al-Zawahiri in Kabul has a number of ramifications. Al-Zawahiri was assassinated standing on a balcony (above) in an upscale flat in the heart of the city by two Hellfire R9-X missiles from an MQ9 Reaper drone that had flown over or originated in a third country. Al-Zawahiri had a US$25 million price on his head and had been the “invisible” leader of Al-Qaeda since 2011.

Such a hit lent credence to US President Biden’s doctrine of over-the-horizon counterterrorism in Afghanistan. However, the intelligence team that reported Al-Zawahiri’s whereabouts to the White House, and the consequent decision to take him out with a drone strike, is likely to have unintended consequences for the future direction of Al-Qaeda.

The strike occurred around the time of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, the president in isolation after positive tests for Covid-19, and just before a critical vote in the Senate for one of Biden’s signature bills to fund his agenda.

The cynical right-wing media are saying the whereabouts of Al-Zawahiri was long known, and the strike was at a convenient time to bolster Biden’s personal popularity. The wisdom indicates that tracking down such a high value target as Al-Zawahiri would have taken months, if not years of painstaking intelligence gathering.  Intelligence sources said he had been in Kabul since April.

Some form of deal is a third option. The Central Bank of Afghanistan received US $40 million as “humanitarian aid” immediately after the assassination. The Pakistani intelligence agency, Inter-Intelligence Services (ISI) is believed to have played some role, according to regional reports, particularly if the MQ-9 Reaper drone flew over Pakistani territory.

It turns out Al-Zawahiri’s residence was owned by a close adviser to Sirajuddin Haqqani, head of the Haqqani Network, and the current Taliban Interior Minister. The close relationship between the Haqqani Network and ISI strengthens the possibility that there was some US cooperation with ISI.

However, other Afghanistan analysts believe that the assassination had nothing to do with Pakistan’s ISI, as Zawahiri would have been tipped off if ISI knew of the impending attack.

The Taliban government which formed after the US evacuation of Kabul in August last year, also had elements of Al-Qaeda and groups loyal to the Pakistani ISI within it. With the US out of Afghanistan, the country has returned to much the same situation it was in before the US invasion after the September 11, 201 attacks by Al-Qaeda on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, DC. US intelligence agencies have long been very wary about Afghanistan being used by Al-Qaeda to rebuild their strength for another  attack on the US.

Although al-Zawahiri was considered an uninspiring leader of Al-Qaeda, he had a long history of working with many groups across the Arabian Peninsula and even in Iran. He merged his Egyptian Islamic Group (EIJ) with Osama bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda prior to 9/11. Al-Qaeda has had a troubled and mutually suspicious relationship with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the Lebanese Hezbollah.

Al-Zawahiri was patient during the reign of the Islamic State during the Caliphate period and kept Al-Qaeda separate. This was consistent with al-Zawahiri’s belief that any caliphate could not be imposed top-down, but had to be built from the grassroots. Only with this strong grassroot base could Al-Qaeda reinstate attacks on the “infidel West.” Al-Zawahiri saw that the Islamic State would be attacked by the West and destroyed. The only foreign attack supported by Al-Qaeda was the terrorist attack on a Pensacola Army base within the United States in 2019.

The danger of a post al-Zawahiri Al-Qaeda is that the organization may drift much closer to Iran. Al-Qaeda and Iran have a long cooperative relationship. This is very much based on the premise that an enemy of my enemy is a friend, with mutual hatred of the west the common bond.

Al-Zawahiri’s former deputy before Sayf Al-Adl, Abu Muhammad al-Masri, was assassinated by the Israelis in Tehran in 2020. Many of Al-Qaeda’s present leadership has long had refuge in Iran, believed to be relatively safe from US drones. Its very probable that Al-Adl, the current number two in Al-Qaeda will take Zawahiri’s place. Al-Adl is domiciled in Iran and works very closely with the clerics. Al-Adl had a long active career within the Egyptian military, and organized the May 2003 bombings in Riyadh from Iran.

According to Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark’s 2017 book “The Exile,” Al-Qaeda has been working on a dirty bomb for attacks on the US, Israel, and other potential targets. With Al-Adl in charge of Al-Qaeda in collaboration with Iran, there are possibilities the group will return to international terror attacks more frequently. Al-Qaeda within Iran has state backing and resources they didn’t have before.

Although al-Zawahiri’s death will have little or no effect on current Al-Qaeda activities, a new leader with a jihadist void left with the decline of Islamic State provides opportunity. The Taliban in Afghanistan may be quietly happy the center of Al-Qaeda may shift across to Iran, this will be Iran’s gain with an organization willing to attack its enemies.

This is not without its problems for Al-Qaeda. If Al-Qaeda strengthens their position in Iran, many Sunni groups across the Arabian Peninsula may lose trust. This is an extremely important issue to factor in when appointing al-Zawahiri’s successor. In addition, if Al-Adl becomes the next leader, there are very strong probabilities Israel would not stand idly by.

The Biden action to assassinate Zawahiri at least partly hinged on the hope that it would raise his domestic popularity. It wasn’t an Osama Bin Laden moment that Obama received some years earlier. Americans seem to have moved on from 9/11. However, the assassination destabilized Al-Qaeda, forcing the organization to consider their future jihadist role. Its direction will depend upon who the new leader will be.

Originally published in the Asia Sentinel 9th August 2022

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