The Beginning of the End for UMNO

Will Anwar cut Zahid loose?

After a special UMNO Supreme Council meeting on Friday night January 27, UMNO Secretary General Ahmad Maslan announced that Khairy Jamaluddin, and Selangor Divisional head Nor Omar were sacked from the party. Hishammuddin Hussein, Sharhril Hamdan, Maulizan Bujang, and Salim Sharif had their memberships suspended for six years.

This all came after Khairy had announced he would challenge UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi for the UMNO presidency in May. Zahid maneuvered at the recent party congress earlier in January to suspend elections for the top two posts in UMNO, in order for Zahid and his deputy Mohamed Hasan to remain in those positions for a further two years.

The reaction to the suspension of elections for the top tow positions led to much anguish within the rank and file members of UMNO, who are reported to be leaving the party in droves. There is now some consensus that UMNO has completely lost its way.

UMNO was once intertwined with Malay identity for decades and had won every election until 2018. UMNO has well and truly lost that position, where other alternatives like Party Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), led by Abdul Hadi Awang, who is appealing to the importance of Islam for Malay identity, and Muhyiddin’s Parti Prebumi Bersatu Malaysia, is offering an almost exact clone of UMNO.

Zahid’s antics have destroyed any semblance of support he had left. He has purged most of the leaders who opposed him within UMNO. This was at great cost during the last general election, where replacing the Perlis warlord Shahidan Kassim in the election line-up cost UMNO the whole state.

UMNO only won 26 seats in the last general election, the worst performance of UMNO in its 77 year history. The aura of Zahid’s corruption cost UMNO dearly. Immediately after the last general election, there were calls for Zahid’s resignation. However, stitching up a pseudo-unity government won him back popularity.

Zahid’s suppression of opposition to him within the party has turned him back into a big liability. With five state elections due over the next few months, some close to the Anwar administration believe that even Selangor may be in danger of going to the Perikatan Nasional. Many Pakatan Harapan MPs are worried about holding onto their seats. Their relationship to a Zahid led UMNO is a disturbing liability.

Anwar’s dilemma over Zahid

A very well-placed source said that Anwar may be willing to dump Zahid as deputy prime minister.   Many lawyers around Kuala Lumpur, believe Zahid won’t be as lucky this time round. He is facing 47 charges of criminal breach of trust of RM 31 million belonging to the Yayasan Akalbudi charity foundation, which Zahid leads.

Anwar is under immense pressure to interfere with the case. However, Zahid’s opponents within UMNO, especially those who are MPs have offered to support Anwar as prime minister for this term of parliament, should Zahid stand down and Anwar not interfere with the case.

This would put pressure on Zahid to resign, where he would most likely be replaced with his deputy Mohamad Hasan, known as Tok Mat takeover as deputy prime minister. Zahid’s sacking of Khairy Jamaluddin has turned him into a ‘hero’, while Nor Omar’s sacking has turned much of Selangor’s UMNO party organization behind him. Hishammuddin’s electoral stature has also been enhanced by Zahid’s suspension of him. This may all backfire on Zahid.

Implementing such a deal would be very risky during transition, where things could go wrong, hurtling the government into potential chaos.

Making the decision to replace Zahid as deputy prime minister would be popular with voters, and allow those opposing Zahid to make some real reforms to UMNO. If done before the coming state elections due by September, this move could bolster Pakatan Harapan and UMNO’s chances electorally.

The next move is now in Anwar’s court. Anwar owes Zahid a great debt. They go back a long way. However, maintaining any loyalty to Zahid could cost his government dearly.

The future of UMNO is now in Anwar’s hands. Anwar can let UMNO implode and accept the current UMNO MPs into Pakatan Harapan, or allow the rekindling of a new UMNO.

Originally published in Asia Sentinel 28th January 2023

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