UMNO could be decimated in the coming state elections
PH might be better going alone
A deeply divided UMNO, whose members pledged ‘No DAP, no Anwar’ may be in for a massive shock in the coming state elections, according to a report.
A pre-election survey among Malay voters in Selangor found there is no significant vote transferability between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN). According to an Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS) election poll taken last March with 1,200 people interviewed in 39 Malay majority seats in Selangor, Malay voters are more likely to transfer their votes from BN to PN candidates instead of PH candidates.
Respondents in the survey were asked what party they voted for in GE15 and what party they would vote for in the coming state election. Twenty-three percent said they voted for BN, 22% for PH, 31% said for PN, and the rest refused to answer. This finding reflects Bridget Welsh’s GE15 analysis for political parties in Selangor – 23% for BN, 24% for PH, and 49% for PN, published 26th June. Taking into Welsh’s analysis, the authors Marzuki Mohamed and Kharirul Syakirin Zulkifli believe, those who refused to answer were likely to be mostly PN voters.
Based on the above assumptions, the survey indicated that 39% of those who voted for BN in GE15, would vote for PN in the coming Selangor state election. If there were straight fights between PN and PH in their constituency, only 15% would vote for PH.
The study also indicated that if there was a straight fight between PN and BN, 29% of Malay voters in Selangor, who voted for PH in the last general election would intend to vote for PN. If there was a straight fight between PN and PH in Selangor, 87% of Malays voters said they would vote for PN, while only 8% of former PH voters said they would vote for PH, while 5% were unsure.
Considerations
Forty-two percent of respondents refusing to answer who they voted for, could be read as they are not sure who they would vote for in the coming Selangor election. If this is the case, then the coming elections could be wide open. However, based upon Welsh’s analysis, it is likely that at least 60% of the unsure voters would vote for PN. This would mean that 67% of past BN voters are likely to vote for PN.
The paper concludes that if this trend continues to polling say, PN will gain more from the swinging voters, and those who shift across from BN and PH. The survey also asked respondents whether they were satisfied with the unity government at federal level. Only, 44% of Malay voters in Selangor were satisfied.
Party leader approval ratings were also canvassed. Forty-three percent said they were satisfied with prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, and 60% were satisfied with former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin. Interestingly, through cross tabulation, 53% of Malay voters who voted for BN in GE15 were satisfied with Muhyiddin, 33% dissatisfied, and 15% refused to answer. For Anwar, 24% said they were satisfied, 34% unsatisfied, and 42% refused to answer. If both leaders are actively campaigning during the campaign, there is an opportunity for Muhyiddin to bolster PN, especially if the campaign becomes personality based.
However, only 17 percent were satisfied with deputy prime minister and president of UMNO Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
Conclusions and potential lessons for the political parties
The survey authors conclude with the low vote transferability between PH and BN, it will be very difficult for the coalition to maintain power in Selangor. There appears to still be a major credibility issue with Malay voters over the formation of the unity government. The Padang Serai parliamentary election just after the formation of the unity government appears to have collaborated this. A Merdeka Centre poll of 5,050 respondents, between March and May found 60% disagreed with the coalition formed between Bn and PH.
It appears Malay voters don’t approve of Zahid, and cannot accept the DAP as a coalition partner. This could further deteriorate support for the unity government in the coming state elections. For UMNO loyalists who pledged “No Anwar, No DAP”, Zahid is seen as a betrayer of their wants. Further, the failure to obtain a pardon for Najib Razak, who is serving 12 years in prison, also puts Zahid in poor light for this group.
Zahid did the ‘unity government deal’ by himself.
This data tells a much different story to what Rafizi Ramli said a few days ago. Rafizi’s prediction that PH will win big in Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan, just doesn’t hold up, if the above presented data has any validity. In fact, this data, if relevant to Negeri Sembilan, could mean the election result could be a cliff hanger.
Its very likely, that any seat contested by BN for the unity coalition, could be a seat lost. PH strategists must now think very deeply, and possibility, even run there election completely separately to BN. Certainly BN if in coalition with PH should have a few seats as possible, if the unity government is going to hold onto Selangor.
If these predictions are anywhere near being accurate, they will have grave implications for UMNO. The UMNO brand and legacy behind it will be in shatters. There will be a loss of members, great divisions, in an unsettled UMNO. A poor UMNO performance may also influence any decisions by the A-G about dropping criminal charges against Zahid. There will be much less likelihood of any pardon for Najib Razak, as he begins to become a relic of the past.
PH-BN is still the federal government and should be able to carry on with its term in office.
Originally published in FMT 8th July 2023
Subscribe Below:
In any election, there are two factors which decide the destiny of the future of the government after the voting day is done with. The collective unity and wisdom of the voters and the candidates who offers themselves as people's representative. If the voters are foolish and if the candidates on the poll are of poor quality to serve the people. democracy as practice here is an exercise in futility.
Why bother to vote at all? If the candidate is deficient in mental and intellectual capacity, how can he serve the people properly? If the voters are voting based on emotional feeling and political propaganda it is a total waste of money to hold an election, to choose an unworthy people's representative.
Government comes and goes. Have we not learn what happen to USA the so call bright light and star of democracy? There are more prisoners in the jail across the country. there are more crime daily, there are serious poverty and homelessness all across the USA, the public institutions are corrupted to the core, the elites dictate the directions and policies of the government. The public officials such as the president and his cabinet are mere puppets to obey the instruction of the Hugh corporations
The China model of choosing its leaders are so much better than any so called democratic process. Meritocracy is any time better than democracy.
“Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance. No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have researched the records for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”
― H.L. Mencken, Notes on Democracy
The trouble and blunder that plagued this nation for so many decades are the lack of vision for the government in power to see further than the next election, and the mental handicap to groom the next layer of young leaders to succeed the next government. Singapore at least has some basic understanding and appreciation of a stable government.
Our blind leaders are as expressed by Antonio Gramsci " that a crisis occurs when the old is dying but refuses to allow the new to be born."
After 6 decades, this nation has still no ideas of how to groom and nurture leadership for the progress and stability of the nation in the long term. China at least has a 50 years plan for the nation.
While the past leaders of this pathetic nation fight each other over corruption and abuse of power while in office. whoso ever wins the coming state election the country will still remain a failed state for the world to lament and shaking their heads over a nation that has so much, and yet squander its rich resources in people, ln talent and other hidden wealth.
A nation of illiterate can never advance. A people who cannot govern their emotion and cultivate their reason is destined for collapse.
He who will not reason, is a bigot; he who cannot is a fool; and he who dares not is a slave.
Sir William Drummond (26 Sept 1769-29 March 1828)
“The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn. ”
― Alvin Toffler (4 Oct 1928- 27 June 2016)
FULLY...
DISAGREE
Too long in the tooth
Too thin.on the head.
Too long in.Malaysian.Politics.
We need PMX to clean up.the Crooks.
Who never expect to be "disturbed"
Fate of the country ,must not be influenced by covert efforts by those who are desperate to maintain status quo...
And using Foreign Knows All ...from their pigeon hole homes...to opine...