UMNO’s “Anybody but Anwar” strategy

Total revolt within UMNO

Over the last week, there has been a revolt of UMNO members against party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi. This is being instigated by a number of MPs dropped by Zahid. NGOs are forming the front line of the revolt, in an attempt to unseat Zahid.

According to reliable sources within UMNO, there is an attempt to combine BN and PN to form a coalition should PH finish with the most seats.

This is UMNO’s ‘anything but Anwar’ scorched earth strategy. Some within the top echelons of UMNO know some big names will lose their seats on Saturday. Names like Zahid and even Ismail Sabri are being mentioned.

Which ever party gets the most seats should be given the first opportunity to try and form a government by the Agong. There is great concern within UMNO, that PH will win more seats than BN and PH.

Senior UMNO officials confirmed that BN is working with PN, should such a situation occur, to combine and form a new pact, to prevent PH being given the opportunity to form a government.

The party with the most seats would normally be given the opportunity to form a government.  

Both BN and PN will tout the argument that the Malay vote received for both coalitions represents the popular will of the people. There seems to be some preference towards Muhyiddin Yassin.

This strategy will depend upon the final number of seats each collation wins on Saturday night. If PH achieves 112 seats, then this is unlikely to happen. However, polls suggest PH will fall far short of this.

This strategy will also depend upon how many combined seats BN and PN win. If the combined number of seats is anywhere near the number of seats PH won, then it will be possible to argue for the right to form a government.

There are a number of blocks to this strategy. GPS in Sarawak, which is expected to win up to 25 seats has strongly expressed they are not willing to work with PAS.

This is the same strategy that was attempted against Mahathir Mohamad after the 2018 election, resulting in a delay of almost a week before he was sworn in as prime minister.

Everything depends upon how the votes come in on November 19. Will the coup be successful against Zahid? Will BN and PN have the numbers to claim they represent the will of the people?

If no coalition wins a majority, or close to one, the Agong will be the kingmaker once again.

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