Unity Government heads to comfortable wins in Pulai and Simpang Jeram byelections

Wins won’t prevent potential political instability

The expected comfortable byelection wins by the ‘Unity government’ today will give Anwar confidence to continue upon the current path he is taking. Even with the exceptionally low turnout today, an estimated 47% in Pulai and 59% in Simpang Jeram, the dismissal of charges against Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, and poor state of the economy had little effect on the results.

However, the lacklustre performance of the Anwar administration and continuous elections, with the two byelections today, is beginning to become a lethal mix for any semblance of political stability in Malaysia. When the Malaysian King Al-Sultan Abdullah assisted Anwar cobble together a government with the support of UMNO, the king and his fellow rulers expected political stability and a competent government.

However, the attorney general dropping charges against deputy prime minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, has now become the symbol of everything the Anwar administration is not. The Zahid discharge not amounting to an acquittal (DNAA) is the crescendo of all the disappointment and anguish supporters of Anwar have felt over the last nine months.

However, todays results will allow Anwar to live through that event.

The two byelections today, one being the federal seat of Pulai, and the other the state seat of Simpang Jeram, became vacated when Salahuddin Ayub, of Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan coalition (Amanah), passed away on July 23.

The Pulai seat comprises some 44 percent Malay, 40 percent Chinese, and 12.2 percent Indian constituents. In the November 2022 general election Salahuddin Ayub one the seat with a 55 percent majority against both UMNO and Perikatan Nasional. Consequently, the Pakatan candidate, Suhaizan Kayat (Amanah) should normally be expected to win with a massive margin. The PN candidate Zulkifli should have found it extremely difficult to even come close to Suhaizan. However, PAS came within 3,200 votes (3%) in taking the seat back in 2013, from UMNO’s Nur Jazlan Mohamed.

However, The Amanah candidate came through with a very comfortable majority.

The situation in the Simpang Jeram State Assembly seat could have be very different with the population mix within the constituency comprising 53.7 percent Malay, 43.3 percent Chines, and 2.75 percent Indian. The late Salahuddin Ayub took this seat with only 40.94 percent of the vote, with PN winning only 29 percent of the vote. However, this time around with no UMNO candidate, who in 2022 received 28.3 percent of the vote, it will be crucial where these UMNO voters drift across to. Perikatan Nasional strategists feel confident of taking this seat.

Any backlash against the government with its poor economic performance, where the cost of living is still on the rise, just can’t be read into thew results.

This was the first election since the charges 47 corruption charges were dropped against Zahid, midway through the court trial. Anwar’s own PKR youth wing is pushing for a debate on the issue, even though Anwar has already said the parliament is not the forum to discuss this issue.

Voters have reacted indifferently to the above issues will have deep implications far beyond these two byelections.

This is the first time the southern part of the Malay peninsula has been litmus tested for the extent of the so called ‘green wave’. If voting patterns resemble the last November general election, then we know PN hasn’t gained ground. However, on the flip side this also means Anwar’s government hasn’t gained popularity, as Pakatan strategists had hoped.

The results show that Anwar has been able to (at least in Johor), hold back the so called ‘green wave’ which enhances his legitimacy.

The winners

Anwar is the clear winner in these byelections. He has produced a result which will ensure his administration can last a full term. Zahid can claim his DNAA did not do any electoral damage and will now be much safer as UMNO President and deputy prime minister.

The result now opens wide open the possibility that former prime minister Najib Razak will receive a pardon early next year.

Potential political instability

There are a few sources of political instability ahead. However tonight’s result will stall the rumblings against him inside his own party and against the unity government.

Within Pakatan Harapan there has been much discontent brewing over the performance of Anwar as prime minister. Many have been silent, talking only to close confidents. However, the discharge of the 47 criminal charges against Zahid has stirred up discontent to unprecedented levels.

Rumours are circulating that the DAP leadership are weighing up their long-term survival as a member of the federal government. The DAP currently holds 40 seats in the federal parliament and won 45 out of the 46 seats it contested in the 6 state election on August 12. The DAP is the second largest party to PAS with 43 seats federally.

There have been some informal talks between DAP and Perikatan Nasional leaders. With DAP’s 40 seats added to the PN’s 74 seats, this would create a simple majority. Other parties would be expected to changeover at a later time, giving such a hypothetical government a good working majority.

Any thoughts in this direction will be stalled.

In addition, it has long been known that around a dozen UMNO MPs are totally dissatisfied with Zahid being deputy prime minister, and are now very unhappy over the way he has been let off the hook under Anwar. Without resigning from parliament, these MPs could just become idle, and by default withdraw their support for the so called ‘unity government.

Zahid has more power within UMNO now, after tonight.

However, continued talk about the above two scenarios, without anything actually happening is enough to destabilize the current government.

Unity Government’s long-term problem not solved

Something for sure, after the next general election any new government will look completely different from what it is now, with a new prime minister. This will cause political parties to jockey around so they might have a place in any new government.

If the Madani ship sinks slowly, it may make it to the next general election intact. If the leak becomes critical, it may force others to make decisions to ensure their own survival.

Thus, Malaysia now finds itself in a similar situation that existed from February 2020 to November 2022, where the government is perceived as an unstable one.

In politics, perception most often becomes the new reality.

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