There is a high probability that there will be a new prime minister in Malaysia after the next general election.
With Anwar Ibrahim’s poor performance over the last two years, and the major diplomatic embarrassment in Russia last week, there is much talk about who will be the next prime minister. Anwar is calculating on holding the unity government together and continuing with the job of prime minister after the election, due to incumbency. However, Anwar has disappointed almost everyone and cannot rely upon incumbency to keep his job. Any candidate who looks like they could be a competent prime minister will be looked at seriously by the Agung, if they can show they have the numbers in another ‘hung parliament’ scenario, expected after the coming general election.
Most likely the parliament will run its full term, unless other factors intervene. For Anwar, the longer before the next general election the better. This means a general election in the second half of 2027.
The next potential prime minister will most probably come from these people below.
Anwar Ibrahim
Anwar Ibrahim is the incumbent and desperately wants a second term as prime minister. The major question is how far will he go to enable this? The UMNO-PH pact must hold and the leader of UMNO must respect Anwar as incumbent. Anwar is shoring up his relationship GPS in Sarawak, and will do the same with Sabah. The major threats to Anwar are his loss of support as a populous politician and split PKR. Anwar cannot afford to let PKR come second to UMNO in terms of the number of seats they win in the coming general election.
Odds on winning another term: 2 to 1.
Ahmad Zahid Hamidi
Zahid has served as deputy prime minister two times now. Talk is in Putra Jaya he is very frustrated that he cannot do many things, due to his boss. Zahid would like to be prime minister, no doubt about it. He also believes he can do a better job than his current boss. Given the opportunity, Zahid will jump and take the job.
If the Agong asks for a number of names as PM nominees, then Zahid has a chance. Some say his record on corruption isn’t good. However, in Malaysia this issue doesn’t seem to influence anything anymore. The current PM is a convicted felon himself. To become prime minister, Zahid’s UMNO has to win more seats than PKR. This may not be too hard under the current political climate. Zahid would then need to get the confidence of the east Malaysian parties, which is doable for him. If Zahid cannot become PM through the ‘unity government’ track, there is always the possibility of UMNO defecting to PN on agreement he becomes PM. This is possible also.
Odds on becoming PM: even money.
Hamzah Zainudin
If Muhyiddin Yassin stands aside, then Hamzah Zainudin has a clear path to becoming PM. With a hung parliament after the next election, PN needs to reach out to east Malaysia. Hamzah is an ex-UMNO politician and has lots of ministerial experience. Hamzah is one of 3 possible candidates PN could offer as a prime ministerial candidate.
Odds on becoming PM: 3 to one.
Others
There are a number of other possibilities. If Muhyiddin Yassin doesn’t retire at the next election, he may want to become prime minister once again if the party grouping results make his candidature a possibility. Muhyiddin was passed over after the last election, where the Agong Sultan Abdullah asked Anwar Ibrahim to form a government.
Odds 2 to 1.
If for some reason Zahid doesn’t win his seat or decides not to nominate, his deputy Mohamad Hasan (known as Tok Mat) who is the deputy leader of UMNO and foreign minister may be nominated.
Odds 5 to 1.
There is also a change that PAS may believe it’s their right to have a prime minister from their party, especially if PAS has more seats than any other party. Some point to current Terengganu Menteri Besar Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar as a rising star and future prime minister. If PAS nominated Ahmad Samsuri, this would bring a major generation shift to Malaysian politics as he was born in 1970. Ahmad Samsuri was an academic before becoming a member of the Terengganu state assembly. Ahmad Samsuri is also a federal member of parliament for Kemaman, after winning it in a 2023 byelection due to the disqualification of Che Alias Hamid.
Odds 3 to 1.
Malaysia is not short of suitable candidates for prime minister. A new face in itself, may have more goodwill than the same old faces that have been around for years. On election night of GE16 the horse trading will begin in earnest. Such situations can always bring out surprise results, such as a prime minister from east Malaysia as a compromise, although the Malay-establishment would be dead against this. One should always be concerned when the opposition PN is very quiet as an opposition, they know where the real game is, and may have something up their sleeve.
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The cyclical nature of Malaysian politics reveals a persistent pattern of disillusionment among its electorate, particularly within the Indian and Chinese communities.
The next prime minister, invariably elevated by a cohort of Malaysians who pride themselves on their political acumen, will ascend to power on a wave of fervent support. Yet, no sooner will the ink dry on the oath of office than these same communities will rue their electoral choices, decrying perceived marginalization, systemic racism, and manifold forms of discrimination. This lament, played on the worn grooves of a familiar record, underscores a recurring failure to anticipate the consequences of political allegiance.
Malaysia’s minority communities have long vacillated between optimism and disillusionment in their political choices. Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, once lionized as a beacon of progress, later faced unproven allegations of favoritism toward a coterie of associates and kin. These claims, amplified by Western-funded entities—such as Bersih, the Malaysian Bar, and a proliferation of NGOs backed by figures like George Soros—served as fodder for a narrative of betrayal. Orchestrated by foreign actors, notably American and British proponents of regime change, this narrative aligned with Anwar Ibrahim’s rise, revealing a pattern of external influence masquerading as reform. Malaysia’s minorities, ensnared by such machinations, must scrutinize the motives behind their electoral allegiances to escape this cycle of manipulated expectations.
Similarly, Datuk Seri Najib Razak, initially embraced as a reformist, was undermined by a confluence of domestic and international actors—including Bersih, the Malaysian Bar, and the Democratic Action Party (DAP)—allegedly abetted by Western backers. The result was the rise of Anwar Ibrahim, a figure whose ascent has not delivered the emancipation anticipated by his supporters. Instead, it has fostered a growing realization among Malaysia’s minorities that the external forces they once courted do not seek their empowerment but rather their subservience.
This pattern of misplaced trust reflects a deeper malaise: a susceptibility to external influence cloaked in the guise of democratic reform. The Indian and Chinese communities, in their eagerness to align with seemingly progressive movements, have inadvertently ceded agency to opaque foreign agendas. These agendas, far from advancing the cause of inclusivity, appear designed to entrench control over Malaysia’s socio-political landscape. The consequence is a bitter irony—communities that champion their political sophistication find themselves ensnared by the very forces they believed would liberate them.
The lesson is stark yet unheeded: electoral decisions driven by idealism or external persuasion, without rigorous scrutiny of underlying motives, risk perpetuating a cycle of disenfranchisement. Malaysia’s minorities must recalibrate their political calculus, prioritizing sovereignty and self-determination over fleeting alliances with foreign-backed entities. Only then can they break free from the repetitive dirge of victimhood and forge a future where their voices are not merely heard but heeded.