Why real political change in Malaysia is not going to happen
Anwar Ibrahim must stem PAS’ propagation of Ketuanan Melayu-Islam while showing himself to be the Malay leader
Malaysia is under pressure from various corners of the nation, as to what the country should look like in the future.
Great polarisation has created a contemporary dilemma. There is a vision of a ‘Malaysian Malaysia’, that is secular, but within the confines of Article 3(1) of the Constitution that states “Islam is the religion of the Federation”. Another vision sees Malaysia as a Malay state where other races with historical connections also reside.
There is a more extreme Ketuanan Melayu-Islam (Malay nationalist Islamic state) view. Finally, there is the three-Malaysia view, where Malaya, Sabah and Sarawak are semi-autonomous from each other, and practice their own cultural, political, and religious outlooks.
There are forces for and against each of the above scenarios.
The formation of two Pakatan Harapan (PH) governments has brought hope there is a real alternative to what can be called a Malay-centric led government.
However, the structure of the constitution, demographics, and the legacy of 60 years of Umno rule are probably better indicators of what Malaysia will look like in the future.
The two PH governments are most probably just a blimp in what is the natural government of Malaysia. These blimps were not caused by popular mandates, but by political infighting between a fractured and now splintered Malay polity, who used Pakatan Harapan for their ends in power plays.
The most likely resolution of the way Malaysia will be governed will be greatly influenced by the factors outlined below. These include demographics, institutions, and the two major political coalitions.
Demographics
The biggest pressure for maintaining the status quo in governance are the current demographics of Malaysia. There are varying estimates of Malaysian population demographics, and the accuracy of any estimate can be questioned. A recent study by Statista released in April 2023, indicates that Bumiputeras consist of 69.9% of the population, Chinese 22.8%, Indians 6.6%, and others 0.7%.
Other reports claim Malays represent 17.6 million or 57.9% of Malaysia’s population, and thus are the majority grouping within Malaysia’s total population. On the peninsula, Malays are the majority population of each state, with the exception of Penang.
This indicates that within Malaysia’s primary race-based political party system, a Malay centric government should be the natural form of government. Consequently, any non-Malay led government will find it difficult to win any majority in its own right to govern.
In GE15, PH did not win enough seats to govern. It needed Malay-centric representation with influence beyond its 30 MPs to govern. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim must govern as a primarily Malay-centric prime minister, if he is going to stay in power.
Back in GE14, the PH victory required Malay leaders like Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Muhyiddin Yassin to support and campaign for PH. Just as they assisted PH become the government, they also took away power from PH leading to its fall in February 2020.
The odds are very much against any multiracial and secular political grouping winning a general election unless the general political environment of the nation radically changes in the future.
Institutions
The interpretation of Malaya’s history, and the corresponding constitution written for Malaya, and later Malaysia in 1963 is one that puts power into the hands of the Malay elite.
The British redefined the Malay sultanates into modern territorial states with the Sultans as absolute monarchs. These sovereign monarchs gave up most of their executive powers, when Malaya was formed.
However, the Sultans were granted authority over Malay customs and Islam. They also had some discretion over the selection and appointment of their chief ministers, and hold pre- and post-executive council meetings with their executive councillors.
As Malaya was made up of 11 states, the head of state was selected on rotation from among the nine Malay rulers. Neither Sabah nor Sarawak play any role in the selection, nor can its governor serve as head of state. This means the position of Malaysia’s head of state will always be held by a Malay ruler.
The Agong together with the council of rulers have much discretion over the appointment of judges and other important offices like the attorney-general. The council of rulers now control the Islamic development department (Jakim), which receives around RM 1.5 billion in annual budget allocations. With its new roles in economic planning and censorship, Jakim is a powerful portion of the civil service.
Ads by Kiosked
Interestingly, the Malay rulers have the responsibility to protect the guaranteed rights of all Malaysians. Behind this is the power provided in Article 41 of the constitution, which makes the Agong the supreme leader of the armed forces, with a special advisory council.
This generation of rulers have great pride and feelings of responsibility for the legacy and heritage of their forefathers. The sultans will maintain the sovereignty of their respective Malay states, and will do this through their respective responsibilities for Malay culture and Islam. No ruler would ever allow anyone who did not respect this point of view as their chief minister.
This attitude permeates throughout the civil service in what is called the “Malay agenda”. This is a Malay-nationalist view that the interests of Malays, must be at the front of thinking, and decision-making. Any policy directive issued by any government seen as against the “Malay agenda”, would be refused.
The conservatism of the civil service is a major barrier to any government that comes into power and advocates reform against those in the civil service who see these reforms as hurting Malays.
Towards Malay entropy
The unity government could not have been created without the assistance of the Agong. Demographically, Anwar is an accidental prime minister. He holds office at the pleasure of the Agong and other rulers.
But Anwar must show enough creativity as a leader. Within the bounds the establishment can accept, he will convince everyone he is a worthy prime minister. In this case Anwar will become part of the Malay polity, which he wants.
The peninsula part of Malaysia is heading towards a natural Malay-centric rule. The coming state election results will confirm this. Anwar will still lead the federal government and can run his full term. Sabah and Sarawak will move towards much more autonomy. The federal government must be seen as being Malay-centric to have any chance of winning GE16.
This is Anwar’s challenge. Anwar has some latitude to define what Malay-centric can mean, within narrow boundaries. This is why Madani must be more than a slogan.
In this, Anwar is once again a key player in what the future of Malaysia will look like. He must be judged on how effectively he can stem the influence of Ketuanan Melayu-Islam, propagated by PAS, under the present leadership.
If Anwar fails, then Perikatan Nasional will have an opportunity to form a government after GE16. The last line of defence against a Ketuanan Melayu-Islamic government is the moderating potential of Bersatu upon PAS. That makes Muhyiddin the second most important person in Malaysian politics.
Either way, Malaysia will see Malay-centric governments once again. We can already see the concept of “reformasi” riding into the sunset.
Originally published in FMT 12th July 2023
Subscribe Below:
Heres what is happening on the ground😀
1. It appears all bn member ie party mic,mca and pbrs will leave bn after nomination date. bn will be left with only umno. Hence bn will cease to be.
2. Najib has instructed nazifuddin ie his son to announce that the bossku faction of umno will boycott voting for bn in this upcoming election.
3. Eight umno bossku aduns in pahang are also jumping to pas after nomination day. pahang ph government may fall.
4. Mca adun chenderiang in perak and four umno aduns are also expected to leave ph govt forcing a by election in perak. Perak government may fall.
5. At the launch of pas campaign in sg tua,gombak,many mic members were there to help support the election machinery of perikatan nasional
6 .It appears that umno mp of jelebu, sembrong, bera and simpang renggam are ready to leave umno and force a parliamentary by election. It is also expected that two annuar musa's umno mp will also do the same.
7. One can expect gps will not work with dap,pkr and amanah in the absence of umno.
This is because the gps members do not like them in sarawak. At state level, ph is trying to
take over from gps.
8. Without gps, grs will leave ph coalition too.
9. Ph alone will not have enough seats or vote of confidence in parliament.
In summary:
One can expect PH coalition federal government to fall.
Pahang and perak PH state government may fall.
Kelantan, trengganu and kedah may remain a PN rule state.
Selangor and negeri sembilan may fall to PN.
Any change, whether in Malaysia or elsewhere in the world is real change. How can it not be so? It seems from a Chinese perspective anything thats not favourable to the Chinese is no change at all.
The question is this. Who is it that is complaining about the lack of "real change" in Malaysia? It seems that the mainly Chinese chauvanists amongst Malaysians are the loudest of these. They believe they have an ascriptive right to rule lord over the Malays and other races.
This seems to be an inherent trait which even mainland China seeks to reinforce by manifesting in their actions their belief that they are somehow a superior race and that any place or event in which they are present belongs to them ultimately. Coercive foreign policy.
The late realization by the west of China's aggression driven by their avarice in this regard and their locust like capacity to swarm any culture in their wake and to dominate them by destroying or subjugating these cultures to the dominant Chinese demands is only now beginning to sink in.
What is good for the Chinese should be good and acceptable to everyone else because the Chinese say so. Or else.
The Indians, Chinese and upper middle class Malays of Malaysia who encouraged, nurtured, helped fund and populate the Anti UMNO, Anti Islam, Anti Malay campaigns with European and American help cannot now claim to have been betrayed by Anwar. They deserve what they get in Anwar. Why shouldd thhat be a Malays only problem?
The turning on Anwar by these political maggots is evidence they knew nothing about the man or his policies but relied on the NED and Bersih narratives and their scripts to fuel and advance their collective ignorance. Nonee of them will show courage, stand up and say "I did not support Anwar".
There a price to pay for self inflicted ignorance and Anwar's rise with the help of these groups. It is but one example of the point when addressing the Western assaults on Malaysia, its real fight for independence and its Malays.
It goes to show without a shadow of doubt that the DAP, Malaysian Bar, Bersih, the NED, C4 and the Churches were blindly following a script prepared for them to repeat ad nauseum so that those lesser mortals amongst them would be impressed and help them bring down a democratically elected government thats served them well in the past.
The Malaysian Bar consisting of rote learning graduates without an ability to think independently or analytically in any given situation I single out for special mention.
China and its people have claimed a territorial right to possession of every state from India and Pakistan to the Turkic peoples of Urumqi (Xinjiang), Tibet, Myanmar, all of Indo China, Malaysia and Indonesia as its sovereign territory.
It has invaded Tibet, Urumqui, Cambodia (via the Rouge), Vieetnam in 1979, Laos with the Pathet Lao, Thailand and Malaysia with their respective communist terrorists and the list goes on.
It is no wonder all of these countries prohibit by law the use of Chinese characters, language, cultural icons including names and the teaching in the Chinese medium on the pain of imprisonment.
Perhaps Anwar's fault is that he is or has been a bit too slow in implementing Ketuanan Melayu or whatever other name he may wish to refer to it as.
Unless the Chinese are dealt with, with an iron hand and put in their proper place, they will do what China has done to the reef islands in the South China Sea unilaterally claiming these as Chinese territory and Lee Kuan Yew their agent in Singapore.
The complaint that underpins this article is an unmistakeable Chinese driven anti Malay narrative.