Saving Selangor

Barbarians at the gates

The state of Selangor is the jewel of the peninsula’s crown. Selangor consists of four major cities Shah Alam, Klang, kajang, and Petaling Jaya. Selangor also has a number of rural and coastal areas that gives the state some semblance of rural Malaysia. Selangor has both industry and agriculture, and the state’s population has crept just above 7 million people.

When the then Pakatan Rakyat seized the state during the 2008 electoral Tsunami, it sent shockwaves through the then Barisan Nasional federal government, partly leading to the demise of then prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Fast forward to 2023, Pakatan Harapan is now sharing a federal government with the Barisan Nasional and GPS from Sarawak, and in Selangor has 49 out of the 56 seats in the state assembly.

The state parliamentary term ends on 26^th June, where there must be an election before 25^th August 2023. Many believe this election may occur, as early as May.

The mood on the Pakatan side is varied, ranging from high confidence to deep concern for the coming election. However, based upon federal voting patterns, dubbed the ‘green wave’ during the last general election, Selangor is due to be hit hard.

The big question is to what degree?

Emerging factors

There are a number of new factors that may have influence of the result of the coming state election that didn’t exist during GE15.

1.      The low popularity of the ‘unity government’: As time goes on the Anwar administration is very quickly losing popularity. The hard-line on reforming SOSMA, the appointment of Nurul Izzah as an economic advisor to her father, have disappointed many supporters. Zahid’s presence as deputy prime minister taints the administration. Any honeymoon for Anwar evaporated very quickly.

There is a possibility that hope for the Anwar administration is turning into a feeling of hopelessness, where the electorate turns on the government, like it did in byelections during the last Pakatan government. Pakatan lost 5 in a row in 2019. We must remember when MCA candidate Wee Jeck Seng lost his seat in Tanjong Piai to Pakatan during GE14 in 2018, only to win his seat back with a majority of 15,086 vote majority in the 2019 byelection. 

Such a s swing would completely wipe out the sitting Selangor government and see a Perikatan Nasional government in Shah Alam.

2.      The Zahid effect: Many speak of a ‘green wave’ in GE15. However, how much of the result was really due to the Zahid effect? Many see UMNO’s poor performance in the general election as voters rejecting the corruption within UMNO. Ahmad Zahid Hamidi enjoyed a short honeymoon with Pakatan voters due to his efforts in the formation of Anwar’s government. However, his move to postpone party elections for the top two posts, and sacking of those who oppose him within the party, led to a great exodus from UMNO to Bersatu.

Zahid still has to face his day in court over more corruption charges, which will remind the public of corruption. There can be no lying low for him. Zahid will continue to be an electoral liability, which Anwar and PKR will pay dearly for. The benefactor will be Bersatu, especially in the seats UMNO will try and defend.

3.      The Azmin Factor: This is an unknown and very complex. Word is that Azmin Ali is determined to recover from his federal election loss, and return to his old job as chief minister he held between 2014-18, leading a PN government. He has a massive war-chest of money to spend.

Azmin may have to work hard to retain his own seat of Bukit Antarabangsa, or move to a safer seat. However, he was well respected as chief minister and has some leverage in the state, even he is seen as a political turncoat in other areas. To the Malay heartlands within Selangor, Azman has been loyal to the ‘Malay cause’.

This doesn’t mean Azmin is not tarnished. He was defeated by the sitting chief minister, Amirudin Shari in his federal seat of Gombak in the last general election.

Gauging the Azmin factor will be very interesting. A big win would project Azmin as a next generation of Malay-centric politics. A loss may send him into the political wilderness.

4.      Some other factors: What the Anwar administration does before the Selangor state election will influence the result. Will Anwar be consistent with Malaysia Madani? Will the coming 2023 budget be formulated in mind for the coming state elections? How will current chief minister Amirudin perform on the hustings, facing his first election as leader? What will happen to Bersatu in the rapidly emerging party funds scandal? There is still much more to come out, where this could become a major factor in the coming election.

The quickly unraveling Bersatu bank account and vaccine procurement scandals could be a gamechanger in the coming election.

5.      The youth vote: This is the first time the UNDI18 demographic will vote in the Selangor state election. The UNDI18 vote in Selangor should benefit PN within the seats that are in play to change. This could give PN another 3-5 percent support in the voting booths.

There is still a lot of time politically before the Selangor election, which could tip voters minds in any direction.

We can only speculate on the potential results, based upon assumptions we make about what is in the minds of voters on election day.

This first issue is avoiding three cornered fights between Pakatan and UMNO. There is plenty to suggest both groups will face the voters on a ‘unity government’ platform. This may not benefit Pakatan, with UMNO tainted by the Zahid factor. UMNO needs Pakatan more than Pakatan needs UMNO in Selangor.

There will be great complexity in coming to any seat allocation agreement. UMNO did not win any federal seats in Selangor in the general election, and state seats the currently held, including Sungei Air Tawar, Sungei Panjang, Hulu Bernam, Sungei Burong, and Semenyih all look in danger of falling. In addition, with the former Umno Selangor chief Nor Omar sacked from the party, it can be assumed many grassroots UMNO party members will just sit out the coming state election. UMNO is a liability to Pakatan.

Negotiations between Pakatan and UMNO must be held with the above realities in mind. Bersatu and PAS are eyeing these seats.

Predictions

Currently, Pakatan and UMNO hold 49 seats between them. PN hold 7 seats. DAP should hold most, if not all of their seats. However, the DAP leadership are planning another purge of long-time party stalwarts like Ronnie Liu from their candidate line up. Ronnie won his seat of Sungei Pelek with a 6,586 vote majority. Ronnie’s absence may place the Malay majority seat in jeopardy for the DAP, which will greatly favour PN.

The Padang Serai byelection, held just after the general election resulted in 80% of Malay voters supporting PN. Anecdotal evidence indicates the Indian community is disappointed with only one Indian within the Anwar cabinet.

This could potentially result in an onslaught on Pakatan seats, where Ijok, Bukit Malawati, Jeram, Kuang, Taman Templer, Hulu Damansara, Kota Damansara, Kota Anggrik, and Batu Tiga, in a worst case scenario could all be under threat.

The PN leadership are confident of winning 33 out of 56 seats, which would win them the Selangor government. However, its more probable that Pakatan-UMNO will hold onto 31 seats, while PN would win around 25 seats. This result is in line with voting patterns in the last general election, still allowing Pakatan to hold onto government with a reduced majority.

If seats like Morib, Senenta, Permatang, and Batang Kali fall, then PN would most probably win the state. Saving Selangor should be Pakatan’s highest priority. The worry is that Pakatan may be over confident.  

Published in FMT 8th February 2023

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