The political consequences of the coming state elections
Anwar Ibrahim’s legitimacy as prime minister is at stake and Zahid Hamidi’s future hangs in the balance
With the coming state elections in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan barely two weeks away, their significance is beginning to show.
With just over 40% of the nation’s voters eligible to take part, the elections will be a plebiscite on the performance of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and the coalition he and Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi stitched together after a hung Parliament emerged following the last general election.
No party or coalition was given a clear mandate to govern, and it appears there are many party members and voters who silently disapprove of the political solution imposed upon them.
Based upon the results of the last general election, held last year, a surge towards Perikatan Nasional (PN) is expected. The surveys and polls that have come out since tend to confirm this, although most are taken from small samples.
While there was 74.06% voter turnout in the last general election, the Johor state election, held a few months earlier, had only a 54.92% voter turnout.
These elections may receive a high level of voter apathy, despite the politically literate considering the stakes to be high.
Voter turnout will be a major indicator of the state of politics in the nation. It will show the levels of voter indifference and motivation to vote within the community.
Umno
The performance of Umno will have a great influence on Malaysian politics over the next few years. If Umno nears decimation, as many pundits expect, it will confirm that the “sands are drastically shifting” within Malay voter cohorts.
In the 2013 general election, Umno won 88 parliamentary seats with 3,241,290 votes, while in 2022 Umno only won 26 seats with 2,549,341 votes.
In 2013, the party had a 29.32% share of the aggregate vote, while in 2022, Umno had only a 16.43% share of the aggregate vote.
Based on the 2022 general election vote, it is difficult to see Umno successfully defending many of the state seats it holds.
If the above proves to be true, then Zahid as both president of Umno and deputy prime minister will be in a precarious position.
Zahid as leader has overseen the party decline into near extinction. For Umno to survive, Zahid will need to resign as president and allow others to try to keep a sinking ship afloat.
As deputy prime minister, he has become an even bigger embarrassment and more importantly, the weak link in the current governing coalition.
Any dropping of criminal charges against Zahid after the elections, as some are hinting, may have to be revised to avoid public outrage.
To maintain any semblance of integrity within the government, Zahid will have to be cut loose from the Cabinet for the Madani era of government to survive.
Simply put, Zahid as deputy prime minister has led to a loss of legitimacy and political instability.
Unstable government
The Madani government does not reflect the will of a majority of voters. It is an artificial coalition put together to keep the government running with a sense of stability. This coalition far from satisfies the majority of voters.
If the political environment becomes unstable once again, it is important that alternative combinations exist to govern the country.
However, politicians may have to imagine, explore and compromise. This could become a third force coalition that brings Sabah and Sarawak to the fore with nominally non-Malay-centric parties based on the peninsula.
If the “impossible” happens, then GE16 will be a straight fight between a Malay-centric coalition and a pan-Malaysian coalition.
This could be the only way out of potential political instability, turning the political fight in future elections into a competition to win the hearts and minds of a core of Malay voters on the peninsula who are neither committed to PH nor PN.
Pakatan Harapan
The DAP, holding 40 seats in the federal Parliament, is the major party within the Madani government. Yet it is isolated and grossly under-represented in the Cabinet.
In many states, , with the exception of Penang, the DAP puts up the numbers in the assemblies so a Malay chief minister can be appointed.
The message here is that DAP must undergo a metamorphosis and reflect the diversity of the nation’s population. Looking at the candidates put up for the coming state election, it looks to be doing the opposite.
Likewise, PKR must listen more to its own grassroots and lose the influence of its tightly knit leadership. PKR cannot be a “one-man” party anymore. There is no point trying to be a democratic party and reforming the nation when the party itself requires democratic reform.
It is the party membership which must create policy bottom-up, which the parliamentary members of PKR must implement.
The DAP and PKR parliamentarians must be party representatives, and not party dictators.
Perikatan Nasional
The coming state elections are a golden opportunity for Bersatu to take the place of Umno as the natural party of choice within the Malay heartlands. Bersatu will take advantage of the void left wide open by Umno.
PAS is expected to increase its presence more than it has ever before. This will assist the party to perform even better in future elections.
The rise of PAS has partly been a product of the Islamisation Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Anwar Ibrahim embarked upon in the early to mid-1990s.
PN is on target to perform even better in GE16.
We have to see what shape the coalition takes in the future. If Bersatu leads the coalition, then there should not be any major issues over attracting foreign investment. In fact, some members of Anwar’s current Cabinet are former PN Cabinet members.
The small parties
Although Muda has a diverse range of candidates, and PSM has a number of Indian candidates who could bolster Indian representation in the state assemblies, most of them will probably lose their deposits.
This does not look like an election that independents or “mosquito” parties will do well in, due to the polarisation of the electorate.
PSM is a strong NGO, but Muda over the next few years will travel into the abyss.
Anwar Ibrahim
A strong showing by PN will put a deep dent in Anwar’s legitimacy.
Anwar will have to deeply reflect upon his performance and make major changes to survive.
The collapse of Umno will bring major new challenges, and fuel more speculation of political instability.
Anwar’s ally Zahid may be unsalvageable. Zahid must face the due process of his upcoming court cases, which may take several years.
For the Madani government to survive the next general election, it will pivot towards PN’s ideologies. This is the trajectory it has been travelling along anyway.
The election results may put a full term for Anwar at some potential risk, if the message from the voters is a big “thumbs down”.
Originally published by FMT 29th July 2023
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At this stage, I just say "Que sera, sera." ("Whatever will be, will be"), until the results of the state elections in the six states are announced on the evening of 12th August 2023 and morning of 13th August 2023.
As a long term resident of Selangor since 1971, I of course am interested in what directions the voters in the various state constituencies of Selangor will turn towards with their vote on 22 August 2023.
Whilst my majority non-Malay constituency Bukit Gasing will most probably remain with Pakatan Harapan, however how neighbouring Malay-majority state constituencies Taman Medan and Seri Setia will vote on 22 August 2023 will be interesting.
Both these two Selangor state constituencies were won by PH/PKR from BN in 2008 and held by PH/PKR in subsequent elections.
The Bukit Gasing Selangor state constituency was mostly won and held by DAP since it was created in the 1986 general election, except for the 1999 to 2004 and 2004 to 2008 when Bukit Gasing was won and held by Donald Lim Thuang Seng of BN/Gerakan. Edward Lee Poh Lin won back Bukit Gasing for the DAP in 2008 and served as the state assemblyman until he passed away in 2011, leaving the seat vacant until Rajiv Rishyakaran of DAP won Bukit Gasing in 2013 and held Bukit Gasing in 2018 for the full term.
Bukit Gasing, Taman Medan and Seri Setia are Selangor state constituencies within the Petaling Jaya federal constituency.
My Sunday musings 😇
1. The nomination for the battle of the 6 states,namely kedah,kelantan,terengganu,n9, penang and selangor is done and no candidates were disqualified. All have started campaigning since yesterday and this morning.
2. Chances are PN will win kedah,kelantan and terengganu. PH will have a reduced majority in Penang and a 50/ 50 chance for both to win n9 and selangor.
3. The key to the above are voter turnout and youth votes. Those out of towners are coming home to vote. The chinese are upset as their businesses are doing terrible since ph took over in the last 8 months.
4. Umno is contesting in 107 seats in all the 6 states. It is expected that they will lose all seats except retain maybe 2 or 3 in n9. Umno election machinery are sabotaging their own candidates and the powerful Najibs faction are not helping Zahid. They may be wiped out next month.
5. With umno gone, BN will implode with mic mca and pbrs leaving the coalition as members to join PN. This may cause instability in Anwar's government as mp hishammuddin, johari ghani, jalaluddin, ismail sabri, hasni and two of annuar musa's umno mps might also leave umno, forcing a by election in all these parliamentary seats plus in pulai as well.
6. Chinese are also not supporting DAP as most of their companies are raided by lhdn to pay their taxes. At the same time, dbkl for example have not endorsed any development order for the last eight months and there is no infrastructure projects awarded awarded since Anwar took over. The irresponsible prime minister is causing severe cash flow and borrowing issues with these companies. All these chinese business owner remember the wage subsidy that PAS PN government gave them and the moratorium of monthly payment relaxed help them survived. The worst part is the chinese business community have lost trust with DAP PH collection agent that wallop their cash in exchange for a friendly tax settlement. The indians have also left PH as none of the PH promises are met.
7. DAP must also rewrite its constitution in order to get Malay support. Currently, their constitution are against the federal governments as they oppose article 153 that give special rights to the malays. PN on the other hand, are seen as clean and not corrupt other than the one PH tried to create and ended up backfiring PH in the case of Sanusi's slandering.
8. MUDA will be the beneficiaries in this battle because the non malays particularly chinese are voting them instead of DAP or PN.
9. Anwar ibrahim is a maverick. He speaks like the late sukarno. It captivate our imagination. However the difference is that after he became pm, we found that he lies and with impunity. Tun m call him a kakistocrat ie a charlattan. Anwar has no idea how to bring down the cost of living. The people had believed him for the last 25 yrs. One can imagine how betrayed they feel and probably dying to show it through the ballot box at this state election.
10. The king is probably tired of changing the government. He has refused to accept statutory declaration as a show of support. He knows anwar never had the majority support of 112 after ge15. He also found out now that zahid never had 30 mps as he had claimed, infact only 20 from BN.
11. It was PN that had 115 majority seats in parliament on 20th nov 2022, a day after the election results. Why the swearing in was not done that day remains a mystery.
12. In 1998, Anwar said on the same day before he was taken to custody on sept20th 1998 after the dataran merdeka uprising about the chaos 'how can anyone stop it now?' smiling to us all.
13. The irony is, it is happening now albeit against him. No greenwave. Its the people's wave.He is bewildered and asking himself 'WHAT DO I DO NOW?' He cant create huru hara and declare emergency. PN is careful. He may go after the PN director of selangor state election. Maybe that will help so he thinks.
14. From the support shown to PN yesterday, it is likely that PH will lose 5 out of the 6 states. Umno may be wiped out resulting in many umno mps to leave the party. This will force by-elections in many many parliamentary constituencies. Gps and grs may pull out from ph government and Anwar may lose confidence of majority in parliament.
15. Whatever it is, we need to step up in governing the country. The rgt40b interest payment need to be extended and refinanced, the subsidies targeted and reduced to rgt20b, the government civil expenses cut down to rgt50b, the oil n gas sold upfront for cash of rgt100b, gst put to action and add rgt40bil, SMEs shld be increased to 60% of gdp. One would imagine Tun Daim would do that.
Hmm..😇