At this stage, I just say "Que sera, sera." ("Whatever will be, will be"), until the results of the state elections in the six states are announced on the evening of 12th August 2023 and morning of 13th August 2023.
As a long term resident of Selangor since 1971, I of course am interested in what directions the voters in the various state constituencies of Selangor will turn towards with their vote on 22 August 2023.
Whilst my majority non-Malay constituency Bukit Gasing will most probably remain with Pakatan Harapan, however how neighbouring Malay-majority state constituencies Taman Medan and Seri Setia will vote on 22 August 2023 will be interesting.
Both these two Selangor state constituencies were won by PH/PKR from BN in 2008 and held by PH/PKR in subsequent elections.
The Bukit Gasing Selangor state constituency was mostly won and held by DAP since it was created in the 1986 general election, except for the 1999 to 2004 and 2004 to 2008 when Bukit Gasing was won and held by Donald Lim Thuang Seng of BN/Gerakan. Edward Lee Poh Lin won back Bukit Gasing for the DAP in 2008 and served as the state assemblyman until he passed away in 2011, leaving the seat vacant until Rajiv Rishyakaran of DAP won Bukit Gasing in 2013 and held Bukit Gasing in 2018 for the full term.
Bukit Gasing, Taman Medan and Seri Setia are Selangor state constituencies within the Petaling Jaya federal constituency.
1. The nomination for the battle of the 6 states,namely kedah,kelantan,terengganu,n9, penang and selangor is done and no candidates were disqualified. All have started campaigning since yesterday and this morning.
2. Chances are PN will win kedah,kelantan and terengganu. PH will have a reduced majority in Penang and a 50/ 50 chance for both to win n9 and selangor.
3. The key to the above are voter turnout and youth votes. Those out of towners are coming home to vote. The chinese are upset as their businesses are doing terrible since ph took over in the last 8 months.
4. Umno is contesting in 107 seats in all the 6 states. It is expected that they will lose all seats except retain maybe 2 or 3 in n9. Umno election machinery are sabotaging their own candidates and the powerful Najibs faction are not helping Zahid. They may be wiped out next month.
5. With umno gone, BN will implode with mic mca and pbrs leaving the coalition as members to join PN. This may cause instability in Anwar's government as mp hishammuddin, johari ghani, jalaluddin, ismail sabri, hasni and two of annuar musa's umno mps might also leave umno, forcing a by election in all these parliamentary seats plus in pulai as well.
6. Chinese are also not supporting DAP as most of their companies are raided by lhdn to pay their taxes. At the same time, dbkl for example have not endorsed any development order for the last eight months and there is no infrastructure projects awarded awarded since Anwar took over. The irresponsible prime minister is causing severe cash flow and borrowing issues with these companies. All these chinese business owner remember the wage subsidy that PAS PN government gave them and the moratorium of monthly payment relaxed help them survived. The worst part is the chinese business community have lost trust with DAP PH collection agent that wallop their cash in exchange for a friendly tax settlement. The indians have also left PH as none of the PH promises are met.
7. DAP must also rewrite its constitution in order to get Malay support. Currently, their constitution are against the federal governments as they oppose article 153 that give special rights to the malays. PN on the other hand, are seen as clean and not corrupt other than the one PH tried to create and ended up backfiring PH in the case of Sanusi's slandering.
8. MUDA will be the beneficiaries in this battle because the non malays particularly chinese are voting them instead of DAP or PN.
9. Anwar ibrahim is a maverick. He speaks like the late sukarno. It captivate our imagination. However the difference is that after he became pm, we found that he lies and with impunity. Tun m call him a kakistocrat ie a charlattan. Anwar has no idea how to bring down the cost of living. The people had believed him for the last 25 yrs. One can imagine how betrayed they feel and probably dying to show it through the ballot box at this state election.
10. The king is probably tired of changing the government. He has refused to accept statutory declaration as a show of support. He knows anwar never had the majority support of 112 after ge15. He also found out now that zahid never had 30 mps as he had claimed, infact only 20 from BN.
11. It was PN that had 115 majority seats in parliament on 20th nov 2022, a day after the election results. Why the swearing in was not done that day remains a mystery.
12. In 1998, Anwar said on the same day before he was taken to custody on sept20th 1998 after the dataran merdeka uprising about the chaos 'how can anyone stop it now?' smiling to us all.
13. The irony is, it is happening now albeit against him. No greenwave. Its the people's wave.He is bewildered and asking himself 'WHAT DO I DO NOW?' He cant create huru hara and declare emergency. PN is careful. He may go after the PN director of selangor state election. Maybe that will help so he thinks.
14. From the support shown to PN yesterday, it is likely that PH will lose 5 out of the 6 states. Umno may be wiped out resulting in many umno mps to leave the party. This will force by-elections in many many parliamentary constituencies. Gps and grs may pull out from ph government and Anwar may lose confidence of majority in parliament.
15. Whatever it is, we need to step up in governing the country. The rgt40b interest payment need to be extended and refinanced, the subsidies targeted and reduced to rgt20b, the government civil expenses cut down to rgt50b, the oil n gas sold upfront for cash of rgt100b, gst put to action and add rgt40bil, SMEs shld be increased to 60% of gdp. One would imagine Tun Daim would do that.
At this stage, I just say "Que sera, sera." ("Whatever will be, will be"), until the results of the state elections in the six states are announced on the evening of 12th August 2023 and morning of 13th August 2023.
As a long term resident of Selangor since 1971, I of course am interested in what directions the voters in the various state constituencies of Selangor will turn towards with their vote on 22 August 2023.
Whilst my majority non-Malay constituency Bukit Gasing will most probably remain with Pakatan Harapan, however how neighbouring Malay-majority state constituencies Taman Medan and Seri Setia will vote on 22 August 2023 will be interesting.
Both these two Selangor state constituencies were won by PH/PKR from BN in 2008 and held by PH/PKR in subsequent elections.
The Bukit Gasing Selangor state constituency was mostly won and held by DAP since it was created in the 1986 general election, except for the 1999 to 2004 and 2004 to 2008 when Bukit Gasing was won and held by Donald Lim Thuang Seng of BN/Gerakan. Edward Lee Poh Lin won back Bukit Gasing for the DAP in 2008 and served as the state assemblyman until he passed away in 2011, leaving the seat vacant until Rajiv Rishyakaran of DAP won Bukit Gasing in 2013 and held Bukit Gasing in 2018 for the full term.
Bukit Gasing, Taman Medan and Seri Setia are Selangor state constituencies within the Petaling Jaya federal constituency.
Taman medan is 85% malay and indian in terms of demographics at 40,000 valid voted.
Seri Setia is 78% at about 25,000 valid votes expected.
PH will need these voters even at 70% turnout to keep the seats.
It is for PN to lose.
My Sunday musings 😇
1. The nomination for the battle of the 6 states,namely kedah,kelantan,terengganu,n9, penang and selangor is done and no candidates were disqualified. All have started campaigning since yesterday and this morning.
2. Chances are PN will win kedah,kelantan and terengganu. PH will have a reduced majority in Penang and a 50/ 50 chance for both to win n9 and selangor.
3. The key to the above are voter turnout and youth votes. Those out of towners are coming home to vote. The chinese are upset as their businesses are doing terrible since ph took over in the last 8 months.
4. Umno is contesting in 107 seats in all the 6 states. It is expected that they will lose all seats except retain maybe 2 or 3 in n9. Umno election machinery are sabotaging their own candidates and the powerful Najibs faction are not helping Zahid. They may be wiped out next month.
5. With umno gone, BN will implode with mic mca and pbrs leaving the coalition as members to join PN. This may cause instability in Anwar's government as mp hishammuddin, johari ghani, jalaluddin, ismail sabri, hasni and two of annuar musa's umno mps might also leave umno, forcing a by election in all these parliamentary seats plus in pulai as well.
6. Chinese are also not supporting DAP as most of their companies are raided by lhdn to pay their taxes. At the same time, dbkl for example have not endorsed any development order for the last eight months and there is no infrastructure projects awarded awarded since Anwar took over. The irresponsible prime minister is causing severe cash flow and borrowing issues with these companies. All these chinese business owner remember the wage subsidy that PAS PN government gave them and the moratorium of monthly payment relaxed help them survived. The worst part is the chinese business community have lost trust with DAP PH collection agent that wallop their cash in exchange for a friendly tax settlement. The indians have also left PH as none of the PH promises are met.
7. DAP must also rewrite its constitution in order to get Malay support. Currently, their constitution are against the federal governments as they oppose article 153 that give special rights to the malays. PN on the other hand, are seen as clean and not corrupt other than the one PH tried to create and ended up backfiring PH in the case of Sanusi's slandering.
8. MUDA will be the beneficiaries in this battle because the non malays particularly chinese are voting them instead of DAP or PN.
9. Anwar ibrahim is a maverick. He speaks like the late sukarno. It captivate our imagination. However the difference is that after he became pm, we found that he lies and with impunity. Tun m call him a kakistocrat ie a charlattan. Anwar has no idea how to bring down the cost of living. The people had believed him for the last 25 yrs. One can imagine how betrayed they feel and probably dying to show it through the ballot box at this state election.
10. The king is probably tired of changing the government. He has refused to accept statutory declaration as a show of support. He knows anwar never had the majority support of 112 after ge15. He also found out now that zahid never had 30 mps as he had claimed, infact only 20 from BN.
11. It was PN that had 115 majority seats in parliament on 20th nov 2022, a day after the election results. Why the swearing in was not done that day remains a mystery.
12. In 1998, Anwar said on the same day before he was taken to custody on sept20th 1998 after the dataran merdeka uprising about the chaos 'how can anyone stop it now?' smiling to us all.
13. The irony is, it is happening now albeit against him. No greenwave. Its the people's wave.He is bewildered and asking himself 'WHAT DO I DO NOW?' He cant create huru hara and declare emergency. PN is careful. He may go after the PN director of selangor state election. Maybe that will help so he thinks.
14. From the support shown to PN yesterday, it is likely that PH will lose 5 out of the 6 states. Umno may be wiped out resulting in many umno mps to leave the party. This will force by-elections in many many parliamentary constituencies. Gps and grs may pull out from ph government and Anwar may lose confidence of majority in parliament.
15. Whatever it is, we need to step up in governing the country. The rgt40b interest payment need to be extended and refinanced, the subsidies targeted and reduced to rgt20b, the government civil expenses cut down to rgt50b, the oil n gas sold upfront for cash of rgt100b, gst put to action and add rgt40bil, SMEs shld be increased to 60% of gdp. One would imagine Tun Daim would do that.
Hmm..😇